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ECA Men's European Cup · 2026 · Men
29 Jul 2026 · T20
Recorded result
France more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Israel started on 26%; Israel batted first.
Israel's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (France: 61% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BJ Lazaruscaught · Rahmatullah Mangal · Jamshid Nasiri 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rahmatullah Mangal · b Jamshid Nasiri | 32 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 88.89 |
| L Dirmeikrun out · Rahimgul Naseri · Kamran Ahmadzai 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Rahimgul Naseri | 23 | 31 | 0 | 1 | 74.19 |
| Niv Nagavkarcaught · Kamran Ahmadzai · Jamshid Nasiri 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamran Ahmadzai · b Jamshid Nasiri | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| JS Bangerabowled · Noman Amjad 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Noman Amjad | 11 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 68.75 |
| JE Marksrun out · Dawood Ahmadzai · Rahmatullah Mangal 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Dawood Ahmadzai | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| not out |
| 21* |
| 14 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 150.00 |
| GJ Hilkowitzcaught · Faisal Safi · Dawood Ahmadzai 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Faisal Safi · b Dawood Ahmadzai | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Idan Varsulkarnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 8 | 2 | 0 | 137.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 10 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rahmatullah Mangal0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 3.67 | 3 | 0 |
| Dawood Ahmadzai0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Noman Amjad0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Rahimgul Naseri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamran Ahmadzai0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamshid Nasiri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-66 (BJ Lazarus, 10.0) · 2-74 (Niv Nagavkar, 11.5) · 3-75 (L Dirmeik, 12.1) · 4-91 (JE Marks, 14.3) · 5-106 (JS Bangera, 17.0) · 6-107 (GJ Hilkowitz, 17.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 30/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 36/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 42/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 46/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 56/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 62/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 66/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 69/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 75/2 |
| 13 | 11 | 86/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 90/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 93/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 97/4 |
| 17 | 9 | 106/5 |
| 18 | 3 | 109/6 |
| 19 | 12 | 121/6 |
| 20 | 9 | 130/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.