KenyaversusRwanda

15 Sept 2026 · T20

Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Kenya won by 32 runs

Kenya20.0 overs189/4 Rwanda20.0 overs157/6 Gahanga International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kenya more likely to win

77%Kenya23%Rwanda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Kenya rate stronger than Rwanda (1,632 vs 1,495 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Kenya won 9 and Rwanda won 1
Rwanda are playing at home in Rwanda

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Kenya started on 75%; Kenya batted first.

Kenya’s chance of winning (%) · Rwanda is the rest

Kenya's chances ranged from 75% to 100% during the match (Rwanda: 0% to 25%).

Biggest swings

2.2: M Akayezu to Gurdeep Singh, Gurdeep Singh out. Rwanda up from 11% to 16%.
3.3: I Ntirenganya to RN Patel, RN Patel out. Rwanda up from 12% to 17%.
2nd inns 5.4: SO Ngoche to D Ndikubwimana, D Ndikubwimana out. Kenya up from 88% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Kenya189/4 Rwanda157/6

Innings 2

Rwanda

157/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Rwanda batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
D Ndikubwimanalbw · Shem Ngoche 2 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Shem Ngoche	11	15	2	0	73.33
Hamza Khancaught · Rushab Patel · Sachin Gill 2 fours · 6 sixes	caught · Rushab Patel · b Sachin Gill	58	43	2	6	134.88
I Niyomugabocaught · Sukhdeep Singh · Lucas Oluoch 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sukhdeep Singh · b Lucas Oluoch	0	3	0	0	0.00
D Gumyusengebowled · Shem Ngoche 0 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Shem Ngoche	28	26	0	3	107.69
D Uwimanacaught · Sukhdeep Singh · Francis Mutua 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sukhdeep Singh · b Francis Mutua	1	3	0	0	33.33

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Sachin Gill1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	27	1	6.75	1	0
Peter Langat0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	38	0	12.67	1	1
Lucas Oluoch0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	1	6.25	0	0
Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	17	2	5.67	0	0
Francis Mutua0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	31	2	7.75	3	0
Vishil Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	13	0	6.50	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	12	14/0
3	6	20/0
4	11	31/0
5	6	37/0
6	1	38/1
7	7	45/2
8	8	53/2
9	3	56/2
10	10	66/2
11	11	77/2
12	7	84/2
13	15	99/2
14	8	107/3
15	7	114/4
16	2	116/5
17	7	123/5
18	15	138/6
19	14	152/6
20	5	157/6

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