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Photo: Charles from Sandton, South Africa
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of South Africa · 2026/27 · Men
27 Sept 2026 · ODI
Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 61%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Marshbowled · Bjorn Fortuin10 fours · 5 sixes | bowled · b Bjorn Fortuin | 84 | 53 | 10 | 5 | 158.49 |
 Travis Headlbw · Aiden Markram12 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Aiden Markram | 84 | 76 | 12 | 1 | 110.53 |
| Cooper Connollycaught · Aiden Markram · Lizaad Williams 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Lizaad Williams | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 142.86 |
 Alex Careylbw · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Keshav Maharaj | 17 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 57%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 80.95 |
 Matt Renshawlbw · Keshav Maharaj4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Keshav Maharaj | 32 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 94.12 |
|---|
 Cameron Greencaught · Marco Jansen · Bjorn Fortuin0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marco Jansen · b Bjorn Fortuin | 17 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Jack Edwardscaught · Matthew Breetzke · Marco Jansen 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Matthew Breetzke · b Marco Jansen | 25 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Xavier Bartlettlbw · Lizaad Williams 2 fours · 5 sixes | lbw · b Lizaad Williams | 50 | 28 | 2 | 5 | 178.57 |
|---|
 Adam Zampacaught · Keshav Maharaj · Marco Jansen0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Keshav Maharaj · b Marco Jansen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Ellisnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 140.00 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodcaught · Aiden Markram · Lizaad Williams0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Lizaad Williams | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marco Jansen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 53 | 2 | 7.57 | 1 | 0 |
| Lizaad Williams0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 0 | 54 | 3 | 6.89 | 0 | 0 |
| Duan Jansen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 8.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 5.40 | 0 | 0 |
 Aiden Markram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 70 | 2 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-130 (Mitchell Marsh, 17.0) · 2-157 (Cooper Connolly, 20.0) · 3-191 (Travis Head, 25.0) · 4-203 (Alex Carey, 27.2) · 5-241 (Matt Renshaw, 36.2) · 6-251 (Cameron Green, 39.3) · 7-312 (Jack Edwards, 46.2) · 8-312 (Adam Zampa, 46.3) · 9-322 (Xavier Bartlett, 47.4) · 10-333 (Josh Hazlewood, 49.5)
Recorded target: 366 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 29/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 30/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 34/0 |
| 7 | 14 | 48/0 |
| 8 | 13 | 61/0 |
| 9 | 13 | 74/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 77/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 80/0 |
| 12 | 9 | 89/0 |
| 13 | 1 | 90/0 |
| 14 | 9 | 99/0 |
| 15 | 13 | 112/0 |
| 16 | 8 | 120/0 |
| 17 | 10 | 130/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 136/1 |
| 19 | 10 | 146/1 |
| 20 | 11 | 157/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 161/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 166/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 170/2 |
| 24 | 16 | 186/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 191/3 |
| 26 | 7 | 198/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 202/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 205/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 211/4 |
| 30 | 7 | 218/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 223/4 |
| 32 | 5 | 228/4 |
| 33 | 3 | 231/4 |
| 34 | 1 | 232/4 |
| 35 | 7 | 239/4 |
| 36 | 2 | 241/4 |
| 37 | 2 | 243/5 |
| 38 | 4 | 247/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 250/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 253/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 256/6 |
| 42 | 12 | 268/6 |
| 43 | 10 | 278/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 282/6 |
| 45 | 9 | 291/6 |
| 46 | 19 | 310/6 |
| 47 | 4 | 314/8 |
| 48 | 9 | 323/9 |
| 49 | 8 | 331/9 |
| 50 | 2 | 333/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
David Miller: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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