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Photo: Charles from Sandton, South Africa
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of South Africa · 2026/27 · Men
27 Sept 2026 · ODI
Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 61%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markramcaught · Cooper Connolly · Josh Hazlewood0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cooper Connolly · b Josh Hazlewood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Quinton de Kockcaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 15 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 115.38 |
 Temba Bavumacaught · Xavier Bartlett · Jack Edwards10 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Xavier Bartlett · b Jack Edwards | 103 | 116 | 10 | 2 | 88.79 |
| Matthew Breetzkecaught · Alex Carey · Jack Edwards 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught |
South Africa's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 57%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 34 |
| 28 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 121.43 |
 David Millercaught · Cameron Green · Jack Edwards12 fours · 9 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Jack Edwards | 142 | 93 | 12 | 9 | 152.69 |
|---|
| Tristan Stubbscaught · Alex Carey · Jack Edwards 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Jack Edwards | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
 Marco Jansencaught · Alex Carey · Jack Edwards1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Jack Edwards | 19 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 126.67 |
|---|
| Duan Jansennot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 27* | 18 | 4 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Bjorn Fortuincaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajlbw · Xavier Bartlett1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Xavier Bartlett | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Lizaad Williamsnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Josh Hazlewood0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 70 | 3 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Xavier Bartlett1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 70 | 1 | 7.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 77 | 0 | 8.56 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Connolly0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Edwards0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 67 | 5 | 6.70 | 1 | 0 |
 Matt Renshaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Aiden Markram, 0.1) · 2-36 (Quinton de Kock, 7.0) · 3-93 (Matthew Breetzke, 15.3) · 4-249 (Temba Bavuma, 37.3) · 5-261 (Tristan Stubbs, 39.3) · 6-307 (Marco Jansen, 44.0) · 7-331 (David Miller, 46.3) · 8-353 (Bjorn Fortuin, 48.5) · 9-360 (Keshav Maharaj, 49.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/1 |
| 3 | 11 | 12/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 24/1 |
| 7 | 12 | 36/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 39/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 47/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 51/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 59/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 66/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 73/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 77/2 |
| 15 | 15 | 92/2 |
| 16 | 1 | 93/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 96/3 |
| 18 | 5 | 101/3 |
| 19 | 13 | 114/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 118/3 |
| 21 | 7 | 125/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 132/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 136/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 139/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 141/3 |
| 26 | 13 | 154/3 |
| 27 | 9 | 163/3 |
| 28 | 9 | 172/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 176/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 181/3 |
| 31 | 14 | 195/3 |
| 32 | 7 | 202/3 |
| 33 | 8 | 210/3 |
| 34 | 13 | 223/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 227/3 |
| 36 | 6 | 233/3 |
| 37 | 11 | 244/3 |
| 38 | 6 | 250/4 |
| 39 | 10 | 260/4 |
| 40 | 5 | 265/5 |
| 41 | 2 | 267/5 |
| 42 | 13 | 280/5 |
| 43 | 13 | 293/5 |
| 44 | 14 | 307/6 |
| 45 | 2 | 309/6 |
| 46 | 15 | 324/6 |
| 47 | 11 | 335/7 |
| 48 | 11 | 346/7 |
| 49 | 11 | 357/8 |
| 50 | 8 | 365/9 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Marco Jansen: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
David Miller: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Renshaw: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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