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Australia Women tour of India · 2025/26 · Women
20 Sept 2025 · ODI
Arun Jaitley Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 66%; Australia batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratika Rawalcaught · Beth Mooney · Kim Garth 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Kim Garth | 10 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 83.33 |
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Ashleigh Gardner · Grace Harris17 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Ashleigh Gardner · b Grace Harris | 125 | 63 | 17 | 5 | 198.41 |
| Harleen Deolcaught · Beth Mooney · Megan Schutt 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Megan Schutt | 11 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 78.57 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurlbw · Kim Garth8 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kim Garth | 52 | 35 | 8 | 0 | 148.57 |
Australia's chances ranged from 66% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 34%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · CR Knott · b Tahlia McGrath |
| 72 |
| 58 |
| 5 |
| 2 |
| 124.14 |
 Richa Ghoshrun out · Alana King · Alana King1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Alana King | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Radha Yadavcaught · Georgia Voll · Georgia Wareham1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Voll · b Georgia Wareham | 18 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
| Arundhati Reddylbw · Ashleigh Gardner 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ashleigh Gardner | 10 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 76.92 |
|---|
| Sneh Ranastumped · Alyssa Healy · Megan Schutt 3 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Alyssa Healy · b Megan Schutt | 35 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 85.37 |
|---|
| Kranti Goudnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 15 | 0 | 0 | 53.33 |
|---|
 Renuka Singhcaught · Georgia Voll · Kim Garth0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Voll · b Kim Garth | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 19 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Megan Schutt1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 53 | 2 | 7.57 | 5 | 0 |
 Kim Garth1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 69 | 3 | 7.67 | 3 | 0 |
 Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 80 | 1 | 10.00 | 6 | 0 |
 Tahlia McGrath0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 6.29 | 2 | 0 |
 Alana King0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 8.57 | 0 | 0 |
 Grace Harris0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 6.00 | 3 | 0 |
1-32 (Pratika Rawal, 3.3) · 2-85 (Harleen Deol, 8.4) · 3-206 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 20.1) · 4-216 (Smriti Mandhana, 21.1) · 5-231 (Richa Ghosh, 23.1) · 6-261 (Radha Yadav, 29.0) · 7-289 (Arundhati Reddy, 33.3) · 8-354 (Deepti Sharma, 42.3) · 9-364 (Sneh Rana, 45.3) · 10-369 (Renuka Singh, 47.0)
Recorded target: 413 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 13/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 32/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 32/1 |
| 5 | 20 | 52/1 |
| 6 | 17 | 69/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 78/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 85/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 85/2 |
| 10 | 11 | 96/2 |
| 11 | 12 | 108/2 |
| 12 | 13 | 121/2 |
| 13 | 12 | 133/2 |
| 14 | 12 | 145/2 |
| 15 | 8 | 153/2 |
| 16 | 11 | 164/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 170/2 |
| 18 | 14 | 184/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 190/2 |
| 20 | 14 | 204/2 |
| 21 | 12 | 216/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 222/4 |
| 23 | 9 | 231/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 235/5 |
| 25 | 7 | 242/5 |
| 26 | 5 | 247/5 |
| 27 | 3 | 250/5 |
| 28 | 7 | 257/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 261/6 |
| 30 | 4 | 265/6 |
| 31 | 6 | 271/6 |
| 32 | 7 | 278/6 |
| 33 | 9 | 287/6 |
| 34 | 4 | 291/7 |
| 35 | 7 | 298/7 |
| 36 | 11 | 309/7 |
| 37 | 6 | 315/7 |
| 38 | 10 | 325/7 |
| 39 | 5 | 330/7 |
| 40 | 9 | 339/7 |
| 41 | 4 | 343/7 |
| 42 | 9 | 352/7 |
| 43 | 3 | 355/8 |
| 44 | 4 | 359/8 |
| 45 | 5 | 364/8 |
| 46 | 2 | 366/9 |
| 47 | 3 | 369/10 |
Georgia Wareham: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Renuka Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Grace Harris: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Radha Yadav: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Georgia Voll: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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