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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B · 2026 · Men
14 Jul 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Norway more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Norway started on 67%; Norway batted first.
Norway's chances ranged from 67% to 100% during the match (Gibraltar: 0% to 33%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hillmancaught · Wahidullah Sahak · Vinay Ravi 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wahidullah Sahak · b Vinay Ravi | 17 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 154.55 |
| L Brucebowled · Hayatullah Niazi 6 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Hayatullah Niazi | 53 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 151.43 |
| KJ Stagnocaught · Hayatullah Niazi · M Shahbaz Butt 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Hayatullah Niazi · b M Shahbaz Butt | 21 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 131.25 |
| C Pylecaught · Hayatullah Niazi · Farmanullah Ghari 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hayatullah Niazi · b Farmanullah Ghari | 37 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 160.87 |
| IDM Latincaught · Ibrahim Rahimi · Wahidullah Sahak 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ibrahim Rahimi · b Wahidullah Sahak | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 63.64 |
| KJ Ferrarybowled · Farmanullah Ghari 2 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| bowled · b Farmanullah Ghari |
| 16 |
| 11 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 145.45 |
| K Mirpurinot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 9 | 1 | 0 | 111.11 |
|---|
| K Nestornot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinay Ravi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 7.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Ahmadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Farmanullah Ghari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| M Shahbaz Butt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 9.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Hayatullah Niazi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Wahidullah Sahak0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 1 | 0 |
1-47 (Anthony Hillman, 4.4) · 2-85 (KJ Stagno, 8.4) · 3-109 (L Bruce, 11.1) · 4-143 (IDM Latin, 15.4) · 5-149 (C Pyle, 16.4) · 6-165 (KJ Ferrary, 18.3)
Recorded target: 200 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 13/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 25/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 31/0 |
| 4 | 13 | 44/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 48/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 59/1 |
| 7 | 11 | 70/1 |
| 8 | 10 | 80/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 86/2 |
| 10 | 12 | 98/2 |
| 11 | 11 | 109/2 |
| 12 | 9 | 118/3 |
| 13 | 11 | 129/3 |
| 14 | 4 | 133/3 |
| 15 | 6 | 139/3 |
| 16 | 7 | 146/4 |
| 17 | 7 | 153/5 |
| 18 | 6 | 159/5 |
| 19 | 8 | 167/6 |
| 20 | 8 | 175/6 |
Khizer Ahmed: Khizer22 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
