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Photo: Aravind Sivaraj
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Ireland vs South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
29 Sept 2024 · T20
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 18%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 18% to 99% during the match (South Africa: 1% to 82%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Curtis Campher · Graham Hume1 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Curtis Campher · b Graham Hume | 36 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 163.64 |
 Reeza Hendrickscaught · Paul Stirling · Ben White6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Paul Stirling · b Ben White | 51 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 159.38 |
| Matthew Breetzkecaught · Harry Tector · Mark Adair 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Harry Tector · b Mark Adair | 51 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 124.39 |
 Aiden Markrambowled · Matthew Humphreys0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Humphreys |
| 8 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 160.00 |
| Tristan Stubbscaught · Neil Rock · Mark Adair 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Neil Rock · b Mark Adair | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
 Wiaan Muldercaught and bowled · Mark Adair1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mark Adair | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 160.00 |
|---|
| Patrick Krugerbowled · Graham Hume 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Graham Hume | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Nqaba Petercaught · Paul Stirling · Mark Adair 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Paul Stirling · b Mark Adair | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Bjorn Fortuinnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Lizaad Williamscaught · Matthew Humphreys · Graham Hume 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Humphreys · b Graham Hume | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Lungi Ngidinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 9 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Adair0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 4 | 7.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Matthew Humphreys0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Graham Hume0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | 6.25 | 3 | 1 |
 Fionn Hand0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 17.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Ben White0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 11.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Curtis Campher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-50 (Ryan Rickelton, 5.3) · 2-121 (Reeza Hendricks, 12.3) · 3-130 (Aiden Markram, 13.4) · 4-157 (Tristan Stubbs, 16.0) · 5-173 (Wiaan Mulder, 18.1) · 6-174 (Matthew Breetzke, 18.3) · 7-178 (Nqaba Peter, 19.0) · 8-182 (Patrick Kruger, 19.3) · 9-182 (Lizaad Williams, 19.4)
Recorded target: 196 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 31/0 |
| 5 | 18 | 49/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 53/1 |
| 7 | 9 | 62/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 69/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 80/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 88/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 97/1 |
| 12 | 17 | 114/1 |
| 13 | 14 | 128/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 132/3 |
| 15 | 11 | 143/3 |
| 16 | 14 | 157/4 |
| 17 | 11 | 168/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 173/4 |
| 19 | 5 | 178/7 |
| 20 | 7 | 185/9 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Fionn Hand: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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