**Headingley**
Photo: Mtaylor848
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

NottinghamshireversusYorkshire

19 Jul 2024 · T20

Headingley · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nottinghamshire won by 28 runs

Nottinghamshire20.0 overs209/9 Yorkshire20.0 overs181/6 Headingley ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nottinghamshire started on 42%; Nottinghamshire batted first.

Nottinghamshire’s chance of winning (%) · Yorkshire is the rest

Nottinghamshire's chances ranged from 29% to 100% during the match (Yorkshire: 0% to 71%).

Biggest swings

1.5: BM Cliff to JM Clarke, JM Clarke out. Yorkshire up from 60% to 70%.
2nd inns 1.3: OP Stone to W Luxton, W Luxton out. Nottinghamshire up from 68% to 77%.
2nd inns 3.4: LJ Fletcher to A Lyth, A Lyth out. Nottinghamshire up from 76% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nottinghamshire209/9 Yorkshire181/6

Innings 1