Perth ScorchersversusMelbourne Renegades

15 Jan 2026 · T20

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Perth Scorchers won by 50 runs

Perth Scorchers20.0 overs219/7 Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs169/7 Docklands Stadium, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Perth Scorchers started on 54%; Perth Scorchers batted first.

Perth Scorchers’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Perth Scorchers's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 0% to 49%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Hassan Khan to FH Allen, six by FH Allen. Perth Scorchers up from 51% to 57%.
2.2: GS Sandhu to MR Marsh, six by MR Marsh. Perth Scorchers up from 57% to 62%.
7.1: SM Elliott to MR Marsh, MR Marsh out. Melbourne Renegades up from 24% to 32%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.