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Malawi Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2026 · Men
12 Aug 2026 · T20
Rwanda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zambia started on 14%; Zambia batted first.
Zambia's chances ranged from 11% to 94% during the match (Rwanda: 6% to 89%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R Lungubowled · E Rukiriza 4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b E Rukiriza | 28 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 84.85 |
| Ismail Karacaught · I Niyomugabo · E Rukiriza 4 fours · 5 sixes | caught · I Niyomugabo · b E Rukiriza | 55 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 211.54 |
| Muhammad Asim (2)lbw · E Rukiriza 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b E Rukiriza | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Ayaz Dadabhaibowled · I Mugisha 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b I Mugisha | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| JV Chandcaught · O Manishimwe · E Rukiriza 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · O Manishimwe · b E Rukiriza | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Vasmiakram Chand |
| caught · O Manishimwe · b I Ntirenganya |
| 17 |
| 17 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 100.00 |
| Shadreck Malamacaught · Yves Cyusa · I Mugisha 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Yves Cyusa · b I Mugisha | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Zakir Husain Patelcaught · E Rukiriza · I Ntirenganya 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · E Rukiriza · b I Ntirenganya | 30 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Javid Patelnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Joshep Zulunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I Ntirenganya0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 7.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Muhammad Nadir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| M Akayezu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 15.00 | 0 | 0 |
| E Rukiriza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| I Mugisha0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 8.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Yves Cyusa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-67 (R Lungu, 7.5) · 2-85 (Muhammad Asim (2), 10.0) · 3-92 (Ismail Kara, 11.2) · 4-92 (JV Chand, 12.0) · 5-92 (Ayaz Dadabhai, 12.1) · 6-96 (Shadreck Malama, 14.1) · 7-146 (Vasmiakram Chand, 19.1) · 8-147 (Zakir Husain Patel, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 23/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 24/0 |
| 5 | 21 | 45/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 53/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 61/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 67/1 |
| 9 | 15 | 82/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 85/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 88/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 92/4 |
| 13 | 2 | 94/5 |
| 14 | 2 | 96/5 |
| 15 | 7 | 103/6 |
| 16 | 7 | 110/6 |
| 17 | 9 | 119/6 |
| 18 | 14 | 133/6 |
| 19 | 13 | 146/6 |
| 20 | 5 | 151/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.