NorwayversusAustria

9 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Norway won by 22 runs

Norway20.0 overs159/6 Austria19.3 overs137/10 Scott Page Field, Vinor ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Austria more likely to win

35%Norway65%Austria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Austria rate stronger than Norway (1,579 vs 1,508 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Austria won 1 and Norway won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Norway started on 32%; Norway batted first.

Norway’s chance of winning (%) · Austria is the rest

Norway's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (Austria: 0% to 70%).

Biggest swings

3.3: Aqib Iqbal to Ibrahim Rahimi, Ibrahim Rahimi out. Austria up from 51% to 60%.
2nd inns 1.1: Vinay Ravi to Bilal Zalmai, Bilal Zalmai out. Norway up from 48% to 59%.
2nd inns 1.2: Vinay Ravi to Razmal Shigiwal, Razmal Shigiwal out. Norway up from 59% to 70%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Norway159/6 Austria137/10

Innings 2

Austria

137/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Austria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Karanbir Singhbowled · Qamar Mushtaque 4 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Qamar Mushtaque	50	40	4	3	125.00
Bilal Zalmaicaught · Faisal Raza · Vinay Ravi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Faisal Raza · b Vinay Ravi	1	4	0	0	25.00
Razmal Shigiwalcaught · Faisal Raza · Vinay Ravi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Faisal Raza · b Vinay Ravi	0	1	0	0	0.00
Aqib Iqbalcaught · Khizer Ahmed · Ahmadullah Shinwari 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Khizer Ahmed · b Ahmadullah Shinwari	5	15	0	0	33.33
H Khogiyanicaught · Mansoor Shah · AJ Parmar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mansoor Shah · b AJ Parmar	4	7	0	0	57.14

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ahmadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	12	1	3.00	2
Vinay Ravi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	2	4.00	0
AJ Parmar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	3	7.50	1
Mansoor Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	0	9.75	0
Qamar Mushtaque0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	35	2	10.00	4

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	1	6/2
3	2	8/2
4	3	11/2
5	2	13/3
6	6	19/3
7	4	23/4
8	1	24/4
9	9	33/4
10	9	42/4
11	2	44/5
12	13	57/5
13	16	73/6
14	16	89/6
15	6	95/6
16	9	104/7
17	6	110/7
18	9	119/7
19	16	135/8
20	2	137/10

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