IndiaversusPakistan

15 Feb 2026 · T20

R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 61 runs

India20.0 overs175/7 Pakistan18.0 overs114/10 R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

73%India27%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Pakistan (1,862 vs 1,775 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and Pakistan won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 70%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

India's chances ranged from 59% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 41%).

Biggest swings

0.6: Agha Salman to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. Pakistan up from 31% to 41%.
2nd inns 0.4: HH Pandya to Sahibzada Farhan, Sahibzada Farhan out. India up from 83% to 89%.
2nd inns 1.6: JJ Bumrah to Agha Salman, Agha Salman out. India up from 90% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India175/7 Pakistan114/10

Innings 2

Pakistan

114/1018.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sahibzada Farhancaught · Rinku Singh · Hardik Pandya 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rinku Singh · b Hardik Pandya	0	4	0	0	0.00
Saim Ayublbw · Jasprit Bumrah 0 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Jasprit Bumrah	6	2	0	1	300.00
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Hardik Pandya · Jasprit Bumrah 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hardik Pandya · b Jasprit Bumrah	4	4	1	0	100.00
Mohammad Babar Azambowled · Axar Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Axar Patel	5	7	0	0	71.43
Usman Khan

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Hardik Pandya1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	16	2	5.33	1
Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	17	2	8.50	1
Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	29	2	7.25	0
Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	17	2	5.67	0
Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	14	1	4.67	1
Tilak Varma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	11	1	5.50	0
Rinku Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	9	0	9.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	13	13/3
3	8	21/3
4	4	25/3
5	9	34/4
6	4	38/4
7	9	47/4
8	10	57/4
9	9	66/4
10	5	71/4
11	2	73/5
12	5	78/6
13	6	84/7
14	5	89/7
15	5	94/7
16	3	97/9
17	9	106/9
18	8	114/10

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