Colombo StrikersversusDambulla Sixers

7 Jul 2024 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Dambulla Sixers won by 8 wickets

Colombo Strikers20.0 overs185/6 Dambulla Sixers17.5 overs188/2 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Colombo Strikers started on 53%; Colombo Strikers batted first.

Colombo Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Dambulla Sixers is the rest

Colombo Strikers's chances ranged from 0% to 81% during the match (Dambulla Sixers: 19% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.5: Taskin Ahmed to MDKJ Perera, four by MDKJ Perera. Dambulla Sixers up from 26% to 38%.
2nd inns 6.6: Shadab Khan to RR Hendricks, six by RR Hendricks. Dambulla Sixers up from 57% to 64%.
2nd inns 7.6: M Pathirana to MDKJ Perera, six by MDKJ Perera. Dambulla Sixers up from 73% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Colombo Strikers185/6 Dambulla Sixers188/2

Innings 1