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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
24 Feb 2025 · ODI
Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 20%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzid Hasancaught · Kane Williamson · Michael Bracewell 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Michael Bracewell | 24 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 100.00 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantocaught · Michael Bracewell · William O’Rourke9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b William O’Rourke | 77 | 110 | 9 | 0 | 70.00 |
 Mehedi Hasancaught · Mitchell Santner · William O’Rourke1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mitchell Santner · b William O’Rourke | 13 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 92.86 |
 Tawhid Hridoycaught · Kane Williamson · Michael Bracewell0 fours · 0 sixes |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 36% during the match (New Zealand: 64% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Kane Williamson · b Michael Bracewell |
| 7 |
| 24 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 29.17 |
 Mushfiqur Rahimcaught · Rachin Ravindra · Michael Bracewell0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rachin Ravindra · b Michael Bracewell | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Mahmudullahcaught · William O’Rourke · Michael Bracewell0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · William O’Rourke · b Michael Bracewell | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
 Jaker Alirun out · Tom Latham · Matt Henry3 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Tom Latham | 45 | 55 | 3 | 1 | 81.82 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossaincaught · Mitchell Santner · Matt Henry2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mitchell Santner · b Matt Henry | 26 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 104.00 |
|---|
 Taskin Ahmedcaught · Devon Conway · Kyle Jamieson1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b Kyle Jamieson | 10 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmannot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Nahid Rananot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 22 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 6.33 | 3 | 0 |
 Kyle Jamieson1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 48 | 1 | 5.33 | 3 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 26 | 4 | 2.60 | 0 | 0 |
 William O’Rourke1 maidens · 11 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 48 | 2 | 4.80 | 11 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 44 | 0 | 4.40 | 5 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-45 (Tanzid Hasan, 8.2) · 2-64 (Mehedi Hasan, 12.0) · 3-97 (Tawhid Hridoy, 20.3) · 4-106 (Mushfiqur Rahim, 22.5) · 5-118 (Mahmudullah, 26.1) · 6-163 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 37.2) · 7-196 (Rishad Hossain, 43.1) · 8-231 (Jaker Ali, 48.1) · 9-236 (Taskin Ahmed, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 24/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 33/0 |
| 8 | 12 | 45/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 51/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 58/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 61/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 64/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 66/2 |
| 14 | 11 | 77/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 78/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 80/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 81/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 83/2 |
| 19 | 8 | 91/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 97/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 99/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 105/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 106/4 |
| 24 | 7 | 113/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 114/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 118/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 119/5 |
| 28 | 4 | 123/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 127/5 |
| 30 | 4 | 131/5 |
| 31 | 7 | 138/5 |
| 32 | 2 | 140/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 143/5 |
| 34 | 3 | 146/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 149/5 |
| 36 | 7 | 156/5 |
| 37 | 7 | 163/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 165/6 |
| 39 | 0 | 165/6 |
| 40 | 7 | 172/6 |
| 41 | 12 | 184/6 |
| 42 | 9 | 193/6 |
| 43 | 3 | 196/6 |
| 44 | 6 | 202/7 |
| 45 | 0 | 202/7 |
| 46 | 11 | 213/7 |
| 47 | 10 | 223/7 |
| 48 | 8 | 231/7 |
| 49 | 3 | 234/8 |
| 50 | 2 | 236/9 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Mahmudullah: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mushfiqur Rahim: Rasi56 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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