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New Zealand tour of West Indies · 2026 · Men
19 Jul 2026 · ODI
Kensington Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 26%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Nichollscaught · Shai Hope · Matthew Forde 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Matthew Forde | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Will Youngcaught · Shai Hope · Jayden Seales3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Jayden Seales | 20 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 90.91 |
| Nick Kellycaught and bowled · Matthew Forde 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Matthew Forde | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| Mark Chapmancaught · Sherfane Rutherford · Gudakesh Motie 8 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Sherfane Rutherford · b Gudakesh Motie | 80 | 82 | 8 | 4 | 97.56 |
 |
West Indies's chances ranged from 1% to 33% during the match (New Zealand: 67% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Justin Greaves · b Gudakesh Motie |
| 5 |
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 35.71 |
| Michael Bracewellbowled · Gudakesh Motie 4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Gudakesh Motie | 32 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 103.23 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnernot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 34* | 56 | 2 | 1 | 60.71 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithbowled · Alzarri Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Alzarri Joseph | 8 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 27.59 |
|---|
 Jacob Duffybowled · Gudakesh Motie0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gudakesh Motie | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
 Matthew Fisherbowled · Gudakesh Motie0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gudakesh Motie | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Jayden Lennoxnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Forde1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 4.89 | 1 | 0 |
| Jayden Seales2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 4.58 | 2 | 0 |
| Vitel Lawes1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 23 | 1 | 2.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 47 | 5 | 4.70 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Henry Nicholls, 0.4) · 2-6 (Nick Kelly, 2.4) · 3-46 (Will Young, 9.1) · 4-77 (Tom Latham, 16.3) · 5-142 (Mark Chapman, 25.2) · 6-149 (Michael Bracewell, 29.1) · 7-166 (Nathan Smith, 36.2) · 8-167 (Jacob Duffy, 37.3) · 9-180 (Matthew Fisher, 39.5)
Recorded target: 189 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 8/2 |
| 4 | 7 | 15/2 |
| 5 | 4 | 19/2 |
| 6 | 0 | 19/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 27/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 36/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 46/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 46/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 49/3 |
| 12 | 1 | 50/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 55/3 |
| 14 | 2 | 57/3 |
| 15 | 14 | 71/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 75/3 |
| 17 | 9 | 84/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 86/4 |
| 19 | 11 | 97/4 |
| 20 | 7 | 104/4 |
| 21 | 6 | 110/4 |
| 22 | 13 | 123/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 127/4 |
| 24 | 6 | 133/4 |
| 25 | 8 | 141/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 143/5 |
| 27 | 2 | 145/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 147/5 |
| 29 | 2 | 149/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 152/6 |
| 31 | 0 | 152/6 |
| 32 | 2 | 154/6 |
| 33 | 3 | 157/6 |
| 34 | 1 | 158/6 |
| 35 | 1 | 159/6 |
| 36 | 7 | 166/6 |
| 37 | 1 | 167/7 |
| 38 | 2 | 169/8 |
| 39 | 2 | 171/8 |
| 40 | 9 | 180/9 |
| 41 | 1 | 181/9 |
| 42 | 5 | 186/9 |
| 43 | 2 | 188/9 |
| 44 | 0 | 188/9 |
| 45 | 1 | 189/9 |
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matthew Fisher: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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