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New Zealand tour of West Indies · 2026 · Men
19 Jul 2026 · ODI
Kensington Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 26%; West Indies batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ackeem Augustelbw · Mitchell Santner 2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Mitchell Santner | 33 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 66.00 |
| Justin Greavescaught and bowled · Nathan Smith 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Nathan Smith | 10 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 76.92 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Tom Latham · Mitchell Santner 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Mitchell Santner | 13 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 54.17 |
 Shai Hopebowled · Matthew Fisher0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Fisher | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Amir Jangoocaught · Henry Nicholls · Matthew Fisher 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Henry Nicholls |
West Indies's chances ranged from 1% to 33% during the match (New Zealand: 67% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 51 |
| 73 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 69.86 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Mitchell Santner · Michael Bracewell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Santner · b Michael Bracewell | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Matthew Forderun out · Mitchell Santner · Michael Bracewell 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Mitchell Santner | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motiecaught · Tom Latham · Matthew Fisher 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Matthew Fisher | 41 | 56 | 3 | 1 | 73.21 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 9* | 13 | 1 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
| Jayden Sealeslbw · Jayden Lennox 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jayden Lennox | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
| Vitel Lawescaught · Mark Chapman · Michael Bracewell 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mark Chapman · b Michael Bracewell | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacob Duffy1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 5.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 36 | 2 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Matthew Fisher0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 40 | 3 | 5.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 1 | 35 | 2 | 4.04 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayden Lennox0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 4.29 | 1 | 0 |
1-12 (Justin Greaves, 5.3) · 2-54 (Keacy Carty, 14.0) · 3-58 (Shai Hope, 14.4) · 4-62 (Ackeem Auguste, 16.0) · 5-71 (Sherfane Rutherford, 18.5) · 6-81 (Matthew Forde, 20.5) · 7-162 (Gudakesh Motie, 38.3) · 8-171 (Amir Jangoo, 40.1) · 9-185 (Jayden Seales, 43.2) · 10-188 (Vitel Lawes, 44.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 2/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 7/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 12/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 13/1 |
| 8 | 12 | 25/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 29/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 35/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 44/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 46/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 54/1 |
| 14 | 0 | 54/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 59/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 62/4 |
| 17 | 2 | 64/4 |
| 18 | 6 | 70/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 71/5 |
| 20 | 6 | 77/5 |
| 21 | 4 | 81/6 |
| 22 | 1 | 82/6 |
| 23 | 0 | 82/6 |
| 24 | 1 | 83/6 |
| 25 | 2 | 85/6 |
| 26 | 3 | 88/6 |
| 27 | 8 | 96/6 |
| 28 | 8 | 104/6 |
| 29 | 4 | 108/6 |
| 30 | 8 | 116/6 |
| 31 | 5 | 121/6 |
| 32 | 4 | 125/6 |
| 33 | 8 | 133/6 |
| 34 | 4 | 137/6 |
| 35 | 3 | 140/6 |
| 36 | 3 | 143/6 |
| 37 | 8 | 151/6 |
| 38 | 9 | 160/6 |
| 39 | 4 | 164/7 |
| 40 | 7 | 171/7 |
| 41 | 6 | 177/8 |
| 42 | 2 | 179/8 |
| 43 | 5 | 184/8 |
| 44 | 1 | 185/9 |
| 45 | 3 | 188/10 |
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matthew Fisher: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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