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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2024 · Men
12 Jun 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 46%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 0% to 46% during the match (India: 54% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shayan Jahangirlbw · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Arshdeep Singh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Steven Taylorbowled · Axar Patel 0 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Axar Patel | 24 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 80.00 |
| Andries Gouscaught · Hardik Pandya · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hardik Pandya · b Arshdeep Singh | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Aaron Jonescaught · Mohammed Siraj · Hardik Pandya 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammed Siraj · b Hardik Pandya | 11 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 50.00 |
| Nitish Kumarcaught · Mohammed Siraj · Arshdeep Singh 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammed Siraj · b Arshdeep Singh | 27 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 117.39 |
| Corey Andersoncaught · Rishabh Pant · Hardik Pandya 1 fours · 1 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Rishabh Pant · b Hardik Pandya |
| 15 |
| 12 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 125.00 |
| Harmeet Singhcaught · Rishabh Pant · Arshdeep Singh 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rishabh Pant · b Arshdeep Singh | 10 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Shadley van Schalkwyknot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 10 | 1 | 0 | 110.00 |
|---|
| Jasdeep Singhrun out · Rishabh Pant, Mohammed Siraj · Mohammed Siraj 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rishabh Pant, Mohammed Siraj | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 2.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Mohammed Siraj0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
 Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 6.25 | 5 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Shivam Dube0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 8.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-0 (Shayan Jahangir, 0.1) · 2-3 (Andries Gous, 1.0) · 3-25 (Aaron Jones, 7.2) · 4-56 (Steven Taylor, 11.4) · 5-81 (Nitish Kumar, 14.4) · 6-96 (Corey Anderson, 16.5) · 7-98 (Harmeet Singh, 17.3) · 8-110 (Jasdeep Singh, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/2 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/2 |
| 3 | 1 | 8/2 |
| 4 | 8 | 16/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 18/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 25/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 26/3 |
| 9 | 11 | 37/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 42/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 48/3 |
| 12 | 11 | 59/4 |
| 13 | 12 | 71/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 80/4 |
| 15 | 1 | 81/5 |
| 16 | 14 | 95/5 |
| 17 | 1 | 96/6 |
| 18 | 4 | 100/7 |
| 19 | 3 | 103/7 |
| 20 | 7 | 110/8 |
Ali Khan: U.S. Embassy Port of Spain · Public domain
Jasprit Bumrah: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Suryakumar Yadav: Kolkata Knight Riders - Official · CC BY 3.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishabh Pant: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Mohammed Siraj: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shivam Dube: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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