IndiaversusSouth Africa

19 Apr 2026 · T20

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 8 wickets

India20.0 overs147/10 South Africa17.1 overs148/2 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

59%India41%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,684 vs 1,564 on our results rating)
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 6 and India won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 56%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

India's chances ranged from 0% to 73% during the match (South Africa: 27% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: CL Tryon to S Mandhana, S Mandhana out. South Africa up from 31% to 41%.
4.6: CL Tryon to JI Rodrigues, JI Rodrigues out. South Africa up from 31% to 39%.
14.3: TS Sekhukhune to DB Sharma, DB Sharma out. South Africa up from 37% to 43%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India147/10 South Africa148/2

Innings 2

South Africa

148/217.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Laura Wolvaardtcaught · Arundhati Reddy · Shreyanka Patil 7 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Arundhati Reddy · b Shreyanka Patil	54	34	7	1	158.82
Suné Luuscaught · Kranti Goud · Shreyanka Patil 6 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Kranti Goud · b Shreyanka Patil	57	46	6	1	123.91
Tazmin Britsnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes	not out	20*	17	3	0	117.65
Annerie Dercksennot out 2 fours · 0 sixes	not out	12*	7	2	0	171.43
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0

Kranti Goud0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	0	0
Shreyanka Patil0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	3	0
Shree Charani0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	39	0	9.75	0	1
Deepti Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	0	7.67	0	0
Arundhati Reddy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	0	6.75	1	0
Anushka Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	0.1	4	0	24.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	7	17/0
3	10	27/0
4	13	40/0
5	14	54/0
6	12	66/0
7	3	69/0
8	5	74/0
9	14	88/0
10	4	92/0
11	8	100/0
12	6	106/1
13	2	108/1
14	7	115/1
15	8	123/1
16	9	132/2
17	12	144/2
18	4	148/2

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