South AfricaversusAustralia

27 Jan 2024 · T20

Manuka Oval, Canberra · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 8 wickets

South Africa20.0 overs147/6 Australia19.1 overs149/2 Manuka Oval, Canberra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

9%South Africa91%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than South Africa (1,752 vs 1,494 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 4 and South Africa won 0
Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 8%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 1% to 19% during the match (Australia: 81% to 99%).

Biggest swings

3.5: D Brown to L Wolvaardt, L Wolvaardt out. Australia up from 90% to 93%.
13.4: EA Perry to A Bosch, A Bosch out. Australia up from 83% to 86%.
2nd inns 19.1: A Khaka to BL Mooney, six by BL Mooney. Australia up from 94% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa147/6 Australia149/2

Innings 2

Australia

149/219.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Beth Mooneynot out 11 fours · 1 sixes	not out	72*	57	11	1	126.32
Alyssa Healycaught · Suné Luus · Nadine de Klerk 6 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Suné Luus · b Nadine de Klerk	46	28	6	2	164.29
Tahlia McGrathbowled · Marizanne Kapp 4 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Marizanne Kapp	24	30	4	0	80.00
Ellyse Perrynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes	not out

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	29	0	14.50	0	0
Marizanne Kapp0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	0	1
Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.1	29	0	9.16	0	1
Masabata Klaas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	27	0	9.00	1	0
Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	0	0
Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	13	0	4.33	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	13	13/0
2	3	16/0
3	9	25/0
4	7	32/0
5	12	44/0
6	5	49/0
7	16	65/0
8	7	72/1
9	10	82/1
10	2	84/1
11	3	87/1
12	9	96/1
13	6	102/1
14	5	107/1
15	5	112/1
16	9	121/1
17	10	131/1
18	6	137/2
19	5	142/2
20	7	149/2

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