ThunderversusSouth East Stars

24 May 2024 · T20

Recorded result

South East Stars won by 5 wickets

Thunder20.0 overs139/7 South East Stars16.0 overs140/5 The County Ground, Beckenham ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thunder started on 44%; Thunder batted first.

Thunder’s chance of winning (%) · South East Stars is the rest

Thunder's chances ranged from 0% to 79% during the match (South East Stars: 21% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.3: L Jackson to PJ Scholfield, four by PJ Scholfield. South East Stars up from 62% to 77%.
2nd inns 12.6: FMK Morris to PJ Scholfield, PA Franklin out. Thunder up from 31% to 48%.
2nd inns 13.1: L Heap to PJ Scholfield, six by PJ Scholfield. South East Stars up from 52% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: South East Stars chose to field
match referees: SM Bartlett
umpires: BJ Peverall, WRP Fernando

Match history & source

On 24 May 2024, Thunder played South East Stars at The County Ground, Beckenham. Recorded result: South East Stars won by 5 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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