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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Americas Region Final · 2025 · Men
21 Jun 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Canada more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bahamas started on 6%; Bahamas batted first.
Bahamas's chances ranged from 0% to 6% during the match (Canada: 94% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Taylorcaught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · Kaleem Sana 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · b Kaleem Sana | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Gregory Taylorbowled · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Sandeep Goud (2)caught · Dilpreet Bajwa · Ansh Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dilpreet Bajwa · b Ansh Patel | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 9.52 |
| E Dufflbw · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kaleem Sana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| K Hindsstumped · Kanwarpal Tathgur · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kanwarpal Tathgur · b Saad Bin Zafar | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| lbw · b Ansh Patel |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| J Jemisonrun out · Kanwarpal Tathgur, Kaleem Sana · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kanwarpal Tathgur, Kaleem Sana | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 15.38 |
|---|
| Jonathan Barrycaught · Saad Bin Zafar · Shivam Sharma (3) 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saad Bin Zafar · b Shivam Sharma (3) | 10 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| J Gallimorenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 19 | 1 | 0 | 73.68 |
|---|
| A Gulatibowled · Shivam Sharma (3) 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shivam Sharma (3) | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| E Havencaught · Nicholas Kirton · Shivam Sharma (3) 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicholas Kirton · b Shivam Sharma (3) | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Ansh Patel1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 3.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Shivam Sharma (3)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 5.65 | 0 | 0 |
| Dilpreet Bajwa0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-5 (Gregory Taylor, 2.1) · 2-10 (Marc Taylor, 4.3) · 3-10 (E Duff, 4.4) · 4-19 (Sandeep Goud (2), 8.1) · 5-19 (Festus Benn, 8.2) · 6-19 (K Hinds, 9.2) · 7-25 (J Jemison, 12.0) · 8-44 (Jonathan Barry, 17.3) · 9-46 (A Gulati, 18.0) · 10-57 (E Haven, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 5/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 11/3 |
| 6 | 3 | 14/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 16/3 |
| 8 | 3 | 19/3 |
| 9 | 0 | 19/5 |
| 10 | 1 | 20/6 |
| 11 | 2 | 22/6 |
| 12 | 3 | 25/7 |
| 13 | 0 | 25/7 |
| 14 | 7 | 32/7 |
| 15 | 3 | 35/7 |
| 16 | 6 | 41/7 |
| 17 | 2 | 43/7 |
| 18 | 3 | 46/9 |
| 19 | 4 | 50/9 |
| 20 | 7 | 57/10 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
