Kartini Cup · 2025 · Women

IndonesiaversusPhilippines

10 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Indonesia won by 76 runs

Indonesia20.0 overs132/8 Philippines16.4 overs56/10 Udayana Cricket Ground, Bali ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Indonesia more likely to win

90%Indonesia10%Philippines

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Indonesia rate stronger than Philippines (1,501 vs 1,174 on our results rating)
Indonesia are playing at home in Indonesia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Indonesia started on 89%; Indonesia batted first.

Indonesia’s chance of winning (%) · Philippines is the rest

Indonesia's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (Philippines: 0% to 28%).

Biggest swings

2.2: KK Donovan to KS Kasse, KS Kasse out. Philippines up from 16% to 23%.
5.4: Karri Gullem Keen to NPAN Sakarini, NPAN Sakarini out. Philippines up from 19% to 25%.
7.2: JKD Andreano to NLKWR Dewi, NLKWR Dewi out. Philippines up from 18% to 28%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Indonesia132/8 Philippines56/10

Innings 2

Philippines

56/1016.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Philippines batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
ABY Smithcaught · M Corazon · NW Sariani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Corazon · b NW Sariani	13	22	0	0	59.09
JKD Andreanobowled · NLKWR Dewi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b NLKWR Dewi	0	2	0	0	0.00
AR Valdezbowled · NLKWR Dewi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b NLKWR Dewi	2	5	0	0	40.00
KK Donovanrun out · DAL Paramitha · DAL Paramitha 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · DAL Paramitha	4	14	0	0	28.57
Karri Gullem Keencaught · Emily Sirs · NW Sariani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Emily Sirs · b NW Sariani	4	9	0	0	44.44

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
NLKWR Dewi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	7	2	2.33	0
DAL Paramitha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	8	0	2.67	0
NK Ariani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	6	0	3.00	0
NW Sariani0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	2	5.00	4
Emily Sirs1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	8	0	4.00	3
SAN Maypriani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	4	4	1.33	0
KS Kasse0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.4	0	10	0	6.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	4	5/1
3	3	8/2
4	2	10/2
5	4	14/2
6	3	17/3
7	3	20/3
8	6	26/4
9	3	29/4
10	4	33/5
11	0	33/5
12	3	36/7
13	9	45/7
14	0	45/8
15	7	52/8
16	1	53/9
17	3	56/10

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