BangladeshversusNetherlands

13 Jun 2024 · T20

Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 25 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs159/5 Netherlands20.0 overs134/8 Arnos Vale Ground, Kingstown ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

64%Bangladesh36%Netherlands

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Netherlands (1,571 vs 1,521 on our results rating)
In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 3 and Netherlands won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 61%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 31% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 70%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.3: Mahmudullah to Vikramjit Singh, Vikramjit Singh out. Bangladesh up from 49% to 62%.
2nd inns 14.4: Rishad Hossain to SA Engelbrecht, SA Engelbrecht out. Bangladesh up from 31% to 45%.
2nd inns 14.6: Rishad Hossain to BFW de Leede, BFW de Leede out. Bangladesh up from 48% to 66%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh159/5 Netherlands134/8

Innings 2

Netherlands

134/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Michael Levittcaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Taskin Ahmed 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Taskin Ahmed	18	16	2	1	112.50
Max O'Dowdcaught and bowled · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib	12	16	3	0	75.00
Vikramjit Singhstumped · Litton Das · Mahmudullah 0 fours · 3 sixes	stumped · Litton Das · b Mahmudullah	26	16	0	3	162.50
Sybrand Engelbrechtcaught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · Rishad Hossain 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · b Rishad Hossain	33	22	3	1	150.00
Scott Edwardscaught · Jaker Ali · Mustafizur Rahman 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Jaker Ali · b Mustafizur Rahman	25	23

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	12	1	3.00	1
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	1	7.67	0
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	0
Shakib Al Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	0	7.25	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	3	8.25	0
Mahmudullah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	1	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	5	10/0
3	7	17/0
4	5	22/0
5	5	27/1
6	9	36/2
7	14	50/2
8	4	54/2
9	14	68/2
10	6	74/3
11	9	83/3
12	5	88/3
13	11	99/3
14	5	104/3
15	7	111/5
16	5	116/5
17	1	117/6
18	7	124/7
19	3	127/7
20	7	134/8

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