NorthamptonshireversusYorkshire

30 May 2025 · T20

Headingley · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 13 runs

Northamptonshire20.0 overs237/4 Yorkshire20.0 overs224/9 Headingley ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 50%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Yorkshire is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 50% to 100% during the match (Yorkshire: 0% to 50%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.4: DJ Willey to JH Wharton, JH Wharton out. Northamptonshire up from 83% to 93%.
2nd inns 13.3: L Pope to W Sutherland, W Sutherland out. Northamptonshire up from 65% to 85%.
2nd inns 16.5: BW Sanderson to DM Bess, DM Bess out. Northamptonshire up from 73% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire237/4 Yorkshire224/9

Innings 1