New ZealandversusEngland

England more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than New Zealand (1,697 vs 1,559 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 7 and New Zealand won 3
• New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

New Zealand started on 28%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand's chances ranged from 1% to 45% during the match (England: 55% to 99%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 2.6: LMM Tahuhu to ME Bouchier, ME Bouchier out. New Zealand up from 29% to 40%.
2. 2nd inns 7.5: AC Kerr to A Capsey, A Capsey out. New Zealand up from 32% to 43%.
3. 2nd inns 9.5: AC Kerr to DN Wyatt, DN Wyatt out. New Zealand up from 27% to 38%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.