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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
9 Apr 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 57%; Scotland batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hayley Matthewsnot out14 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 114* | 113 | 14 | 0 | 100.88 |
| Qiana Josephcaught and bowled · Darcey Carter 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Darcey Carter | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Zaida Jamescaught · Katherine Fraser · Chloe Abel 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Katherine Fraser · b Chloe Abel | 45 | 89 | 5 | 1 | 50.56 |
 Shemaine Campbellecaught · Sarah Bryce · Kathryn Bryce1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sarah Bryce · b Kathryn Bryce | 9 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 45.00 |
 |
Scotland's chances ranged from 17% to 99% during the match (West Indies: 1% to 83%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Sarah Bryce, Ailsa Lister |
| 8 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 80.00 |
 Chinelle Henrystumped · Sarah Bryce · Abtaha Maqsood0 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Sarah Bryce · b Abtaha Maqsood | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Shabika Gajnabicaught · Sarah Bryce · Chloe Abel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sarah Bryce · b Chloe Abel | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Aaliyah Alleynelbw · Abtaha Maqsood 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Abtaha Maqsood | 17 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 73.91 |
|---|
| Cherry-Ann Fraserbowled · Katherine Fraser 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Katherine Fraser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Afy Fletchercaught · Megan McColl · Katherine Fraser0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Megan McColl · b Katherine Fraser | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Karishma Ramharackcaught and bowled · Katherine Fraser0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Katherine Fraser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 20 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kathryn Bryce1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 34 | 1 | 4.86 | 2 | 0 |
| Darcey Carter0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 2.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Chloe Abel0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 3.10 | 4 | 0 |
| Katherine Fraser1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.1 | 1 | 50 | 3 | 4.92 | 3 | 0 |
| Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 4.40 | 6 | 0 |
| Abtaha Maqsood0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.2 | 0 | 60 | 2 | 7.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Hannah Rainey0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-7 (Qiana Joseph, 2.0) · 2-120 (Zaida James, 26.5) · 3-142 (Shemaine Campbelle, 32.2) · 4-164 (Stafanie Taylor, 35.4) · 5-176 (Chinelle Henry, 36.1) · 6-192 (Shabika Gajnabi, 38.5) · 7-194 (Cherry-Ann Fraser, 39.2) · 8-199 (Afy Fletcher, 41.3) · 9-203 (Karishma Ramharack, 41.5) · 10-233 (Aaliyah Alleyne, 46.3)
Recorded target: 245 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 18/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 21/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 28/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 35/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 39/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 42/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 44/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 47/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 51/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 56/1 |
| 16 | 11 | 67/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 70/1 |
| 18 | 2 | 72/1 |
| 19 | 7 | 79/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 83/1 |
| 21 | 12 | 95/1 |
| 22 | 9 | 104/1 |
| 23 | 8 | 112/1 |
| 24 | 2 | 114/1 |
| 25 | 1 | 115/1 |
| 26 | 2 | 117/1 |
| 27 | 3 | 120/2 |
| 28 | 7 | 127/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 131/2 |
| 30 | 7 | 138/2 |
| 31 | 0 | 138/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 142/2 |
| 33 | 3 | 145/3 |
| 34 | 8 | 153/3 |
| 35 | 10 | 163/3 |
| 36 | 13 | 176/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 179/5 |
| 38 | 13 | 192/5 |
| 39 | 2 | 194/6 |
| 40 | 0 | 194/7 |
| 41 | 4 | 198/7 |
| 42 | 7 | 205/9 |
| 43 | 2 | 207/9 |
| 44 | 13 | 220/9 |
| 45 | 7 | 227/9 |
| 46 | 5 | 232/9 |
| 47 | 1 | 233/10 |
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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