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Hong Kong tour of Qatar · 2023/24 · Men
29 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Hong Kong started on 58%; Hong Kong batted first.
Hong Kong's chances ranged from 3% to 98% during the match (Qatar: 2% to 97%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saqlain Arshadbowled · Haroon Arshed 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Haroon Arshed | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Adnan Mirzacaught · Martin Coetzee · Anas Khan 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Martin Coetzee · b Anas Khan | 23 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 164.29 |
| Imal Liyanagebowled · Haroon Arshed 3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Haroon Arshed | 22 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 157.14 |
| Mirza Mohammed Baigcaught · Aizaz Khan · Anas Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aizaz Khan · b Anas Khan | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 166.67 |
| Muhammad Tanveernot out 5 fours · 6 sixes | not out | 80* | 46 | 5 | 6 | 173.91 |
| Shahzaib Jamil |
| caught · Anshuman Rath · b Aizaz Khan |
| 12 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 109.09 |
| Amir Farooqcaught · Nizakat Khan · Aizaz Khan 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Nizakat Khan · b Aizaz Khan | 31 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 140.91 |
|---|
| H Rathodnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 13* | 4 | 1 | 1 | 325.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haroon Arshed0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 13.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Ayush Shukla0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 47 | 0 | 15.67 | 3 | 1 |
| Dhananjay Rao0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Anas Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.1 | 0 | 18 | 2 | 8.31 | 0 | 0 |
| Aizaz Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 11.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Yasim Murtaza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Saqlain Arshad, 0.3) · 2-54 (Imal Liyanage, 4.3) · 3-59 (Mirza Mohammed Baig, 5.1) · 4-60 (Adnan Mirza, 5.5) · 5-98 (Shahzaib Jamil, 10.4) · 6-179 (Amir Farooq, 18.1)
Recorded target: 198 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/1 |
| 2 | 12 | 24/1 |
| 3 | 16 | 40/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 50/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 59/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 61/4 |
| 7 | 3 | 64/4 |
| 8 | 12 | 76/4 |
| 9 | 8 | 84/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 87/4 |
| 11 | 18 | 105/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 108/5 |
| 13 | 10 | 118/5 |
| 14 | 9 | 127/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 131/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 135/5 |
| 17 | 19 | 154/5 |
| 18 | 25 | 179/5 |
| 19 | 17 | 196/6 |
| 20 | 4 | 200/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.