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West Indies tour of England · 2024 · Men
10 Jul 2024 · Test
Lord's · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kraigg Brathwaitebowled · James Anderson1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b James Anderson | 4 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 15.38 |
| Mikyle Louiscaught · Jamie Smith · Ben Stokes 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Ben Stokes | 14 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 28.57 |
| Kirk McKenzielbw · Ben Stokes 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ben Stokes | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Alick Athanazecaught · Jamie Smith · James Anderson 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b James Anderson | 22 | 47 | 4 | 0 | 46.81 |
| Kavem Hodgebowled · Gus Atkinson1 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Gus Atkinson |
| 4 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 80.00 |
 Jason Holdercaught · Ollie Pope · Gus Atkinson2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ollie Pope · b Gus Atkinson | 20 | 59 | 2 | 0 | 33.90 |
|---|
 Joshua Da Silvacaught · Jamie Smith · James Anderson1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b James Anderson | 9 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 34.62 |
|---|
| Alzarri Josephcaught · Ben Duckett · Gus Atkinson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Gus Atkinson | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motienot out 5 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 31* | 35 | 5 | 0 | 88.57 |
|---|
| Shamar Josephbowled · Gus Atkinson 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gus Atkinson | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Jayden Sealescaught · Ben Duckett · Gus Atkinson 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Gus Atkinson | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 2 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Anderson7 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 7 | 32 | 3 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Chris Woakes3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 1.57 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Atkinson2 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 14.0 | 2 | 61 | 5 | 4.36 | 0 | 2 |
 Ben Stokes4 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 2.50 | 0 | 2 |
1-12 (Kraigg Brathwaite, 8.1) · 2-17 (Kirk McKenzie, 11.3) · 3-32 (Mikyle Louis, 17.2) · 4-37 (Kavem Hodge, 18.3) · 5-55 (Alick Athanaze, 28.2) · 6-79 (Jason Holder, 34.5) · 7-88 (Joshua Da Silva, 37.1) · 8-96 (Alzarri Joseph, 40.1) · 9-103 (Shamar Joseph, 42.2) · 10-136 (Jayden Seales, 47.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 1/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 5/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 8/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 8/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 12/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 13/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 17/1 |
| 12 | 0 | 17/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 18/2 |
| 14 | 0 | 18/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 18/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 18/2 |
| 17 | 12 | 30/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 36/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 38/4 |
| 20 | 1 | 39/4 |
| 21 | 3 | 42/4 |
| 22 | 0 | 42/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 43/4 |
| 24 | 8 | 51/4 |
| 25 | 1 | 52/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 53/4 |
| 27 | 0 | 53/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 55/4 |
| 29 | 6 | 61/5 |
| 30 | 9 | 70/5 |
| 31 | 1 | 71/5 |
| 32 | 0 | 71/5 |
| 33 | 5 | 76/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 78/5 |
| 35 | 1 | 79/6 |
| 36 | 0 | 79/6 |
| 37 | 9 | 88/6 |
| 38 | 0 | 88/7 |
| 39 | 4 | 92/7 |
| 40 | 4 | 96/7 |
| 41 | 1 | 97/8 |
| 42 | 6 | 103/8 |
| 43 | 0 | 103/9 |
| 44 | 6 | 109/9 |
| 45 | 14 | 123/9 |
| 46 | 7 | 130/9 |
| 47 | 6 | 136/10 |
James Anderson: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kraigg Brathwaite: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Joshua Da Silva: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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