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Photo: Nelsonpubliclibraries
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
West Indies tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
9 Nov 2025 · T20
Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 76%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 49%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Jangoobowled · Jacob Duffy 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jacob Duffy | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
| Alick Athanazecaught · Mitchell Hay · Ish Sodhi 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mitchell Hay · b Ish Sodhi | 31 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 134.78 |
 Shai Hopecaught · Tim Robinson · Jacob Duffy0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim Robinson · b Jacob Duffy | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Ackeem Augusterun out · Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi · Ish Sodhi 2 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi | 24 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 150.00 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Ish Sodhi · Michael Bracewell 0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Ish Sodhi · b Michael Bracewell |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Rovman Powellbowled · Ish Sodhi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ish Sodhi | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Jason Holdercaught · Tim Robinson · Mitchell Santner0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tim Robinson · b Mitchell Santner | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdcaught · Daryl Mitchell · Kyle Jamieson 4 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Kyle Jamieson | 49 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 144.12 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordelbw · Ish Sodhi 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ish Sodhi | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Shamar Springercaught and bowled · Jacob Duffy 3 fours · 3 sixes | caught and bowled · b Jacob Duffy | 39 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 195.00 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseinnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 9.13 | 1 | 0 |
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 36 | 3 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 3 | 8.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
| James Neesham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 12.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (Amir Jangoo, 1.1) · 2-15 (Shai Hope, 1.5) · 3-53 (Alick Athanaze, 6.4) · 4-60 (Sherfane Rutherford, 8.0) · 5-68 (Rovman Powell, 8.5) · 6-68 (Ackeem Auguste, 9.0) · 7-83 (Jason Holder, 11.3) · 8-88 (Matthew Forde, 12.3) · 9-166 (Shamar Springer, 19.0) · 10-168 (Romario Shepherd, 19.5)
Recorded target: 178 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 13/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 15/2 |
| 3 | 11 | 26/2 |
| 4 | 3 | 29/2 |
| 5 | 8 | 37/2 |
| 6 | 9 | 46/2 |
| 7 | 10 | 56/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 60/4 |
| 9 | 8 | 68/6 |
| 10 | 7 | 75/6 |
| 11 | 6 | 81/6 |
| 12 | 6 | 87/7 |
| 13 | 8 | 95/8 |
| 14 | 6 | 101/8 |
| 15 | 14 | 115/8 |
| 16 | 11 | 126/8 |
| 17 | 9 | 135/8 |
| 18 | 19 | 154/8 |
| 19 | 12 | 166/9 |
| 20 | 2 | 168/10 |
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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