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Sri Lanka tour of West Indies · 2026 · Men
11 Jun 2026 · T20
Sabina Park · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 30%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (West Indies: 49% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingbowled · Wanindu Hasaranga 2 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 37 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 168.18 |
 Shai Hopenot out5 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 65* | 54 | 5 | 2 | 120.37 |
 Shimron Hetmyercaught · Pavan Rathnayake · Wanindu Hasaranga2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Pavan Rathnayake · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 188.89 |
 Roston Chasebowled · Eshan Malinga0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Eshan Malinga | 16 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 61.54 |
| Rovman Powellnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 10* | 6 | 0 | 1 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilshan Madushanka0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 39 | 0 | 11.70 | 2 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 1 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-67 (Brandon King, 6.2) · 2-95 (Shimron Hetmyer, 9.0) · 3-128 (Roston Chase, 16.4)
Recorded target: 148 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 17 | 30/0 |
| 4 | 12 | 42/0 |
| 5 | 15 | 57/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 66/0 |
| 7 | 13 | 79/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 83/1 |
| 9 | 12 | 95/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 97/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 99/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 101/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 105/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 110/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 116/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 120/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 129/3 |
| 18 | 10 | 139/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 142/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 149/3 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
