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Sri Lanka tour of West Indies · 2026 · Men
11 Jun 2026 · T20
Sabina Park · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 30%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (West Indies: 49% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankabowled · Jason Holder 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jason Holder | 18 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 128.57 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Roston Chase · Shamar Joseph 2 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Shamar Joseph | 36 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 156.52 |
| Lasith Croospullelbw · Jason Holder 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jason Holder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Pavan Rathnayakecaught · Shimron Hetmyer · Shamar Joseph 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shimron Hetmyer · b Shamar Joseph | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Kamindu Mendisrun out · Shai Hope, Matthew Forde · Shamar Joseph 4 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Shai Hope, Matthew Forde | 51 | 39 | 4 | 2 | 130.77 |
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Matthew Forde · Roston Chase 1 fours · 1 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Matthew Forde · b Roston Chase |
| 22 |
| 23 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 95.65 |
 Wanindu Hasarangacaught · Shai Hope · Shamar Joseph0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Shamar Joseph | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Rovman Powell · Jason Holder 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rovman Powell · b Jason Holder | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Dushmantha Chameerarun out · Brandon King, Shai Hope, Shamar Joseph · Shamar Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Brandon King, Shai Hope, Shamar Joseph | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Eshan Malinganot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 9.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 10.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Jason Holder0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 7.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-43 (Pathum Nissanka, 4.2) · 2-43 (Lasith Croospulle, 4.3) · 3-49 (Pavan Rathnayake, 5.3) · 4-65 (Kusal Mendis, 7.4) · 5-124 (Dasun Shanaka, 15.4) · 6-138 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 17.4) · 7-139 (Mahesh Theekshana, 18.3) · 8-144 (Kamindu Mendis, 19.4) · 9-147 (Dushmantha Chameera, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 17 | 39/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 43/2 |
| 6 | 13 | 56/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 59/3 |
| 8 | 7 | 66/4 |
| 9 | 3 | 69/4 |
| 10 | 6 | 75/4 |
| 11 | 14 | 89/4 |
| 12 | 6 | 95/4 |
| 13 | 13 | 108/4 |
| 14 | 5 | 113/4 |
| 15 | 9 | 122/4 |
| 16 | 3 | 125/5 |
| 17 | 10 | 135/5 |
| 18 | 4 | 139/6 |
| 19 | 2 | 141/7 |
| 20 | 6 | 147/9 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jason Holder: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
