IndiaversusNetherlands

17 Jun 2026 · T20

Headingley · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 95 runs

India20.0 overs209/5 Netherlands17.3 overs114/10 Headingley ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%India49%Netherlands

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Netherlands (1,621 vs 1,612 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 51%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Netherlands is the rest

India's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 49%).

Biggest swings

0.5: IJR Zwilling to Shafali Verma, four by Shafali Verma. India up from 54% to 58%.
1.3: HDJ Siegers to Shafali Verma, four by Shafali Verma. India up from 57% to 60%.
2nd inns 4.2: NSS Sharma to HDJ Siegers, HDJ Siegers out. India up from 88% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India209/5 Netherlands114/10

Innings 1

India

209/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Iris Zwilling · Caroline de Lange 11 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Iris Zwilling · b Caroline de Lange	74	47	11	1	157.45
Shafali Vermacaught · Iris Zwilling · Heather Siegers 10 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Iris Zwilling · b Heather Siegers	55	38	10	0	144.74
Jemimah Rodriguescaught · Babette de Leede · MIW van den Raad 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Babette de Leede · b MIW van den Raad	19	13	2	0	146.15

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Iris Zwilling0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	41	1	10.25	3	0
Heather Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	31	1	15.50	0	0
I van der Woning0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	25	0	12.50	3	1
MIW van den Raad0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	7	0
Silver Siegers0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	0	0
Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	2	8.00	1	0
Frederique Overdijk0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	14	23/0
3	3	26/0
4	12	38/0
5	10	48/0
6	11	59/0
7	8	67/0
8	5	72/0
9	13	85/0
10	11	96/0
11	8	104/0
12	17	121/1
13	6	127/1
14	10	137/1
15	18	155/1
16	7	162/2
17	6	168/3
18	9	177/4
19	13	190/4
20	19	209/5

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