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Pearl of Africa T20I Series · 2025 · Men
23 Jul 2025 · T20
Recorded result
United Arab Emirates more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Kenya started on 34%; Kenya batted first.
Kenya's chances ranged from 0% to 41% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 59% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dhiren Gondariarun out · Aryansh Sharma, Zuhaib Zubair · Haider Ali 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Aryansh Sharma, Zuhaib Zubair | 17 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 89.47 |
 Pushkar Sharmacaught · Ethan Carl D'Souza · Haider Ali4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ethan Carl D'Souza · b Haider Ali | 42 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 107.69 |
 Sukhdeep Singhbowled · Zuhaib Zubair0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zuhaib Zubair | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
 Rakep Patelbowled · Matiullah Khan0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matiullah Khan | 6 |
| 17 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 35.29 |
| Sachin Gillcaught · Waseem Muhammad · Muhammad Rohid 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Muhammad Rohid | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Tanzeel Sheikhcaught · Muhammad Zohaib · Haider Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muhammad Zohaib · b Haider Ali | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Lucas Oluochbowled · Akif Raja 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Akif Raja | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 18.18 |
|---|
| Francis Mutuabowled · Zuhaib Zubair 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zuhaib Zubair | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Shem Ngochebowled · Muhammad Rohid 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Rohid | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Peter Langatcaught · Alishan Sharafu · Akif Raja 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alishan Sharafu · b Akif Raja | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Vraj Patelnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akif Raja0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 1 |
| Matiullah Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Haider Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Rohid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Zuhaib Zubair0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-30 (Dhiren Gondaria, 5.4) · 2-39 (Sukhdeep Singh, 7.3) · 3-54 (Rakep Patel, 12.1) · 4-72 (Pushkar Sharma, 13.4) · 5-83 (Tanzeel Sheikh, 15.3) · 6-85 (Sachin Gill, 16.3) · 7-88 (Francis Mutua, 17.3) · 8-93 (Shem Ngoche, 18.3) · 9-95 (Lucas Oluoch, 19.2) · 10-98 (Peter Langat, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 7/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 38/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 39/2 |
| 9 | 4 | 43/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 11 | 5 | 50/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 54/2 |
| 13 | 7 | 61/3 |
| 14 | 13 | 74/4 |
| 15 | 8 | 82/4 |
| 16 | 1 | 83/5 |
| 17 | 3 | 86/6 |
| 18 | 6 | 92/7 |
| 19 | 3 | 95/8 |
| 20 | 3 | 98/10 |
Pushkar Sharma: SAKSHI0989 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rakep Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sukhdeep Singh: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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