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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
4 May 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 19%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Munseycaught · Waseem Muhammad · SS Kang 3 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b SS Kang | 78 | 101 | 3 | 5 | 77.23 |
| Matty Crossrun out · Sanchit Sharma · Sanchit Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sanchit Sharma | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Brandon McMullencaught · Rahul Chopra · Muhammad Jawadullah 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Rahul Chopra · b Muhammad Jawadullah | 58 | 50 | 5 | 2 | 116.00 |
| Richie Berringtoncaught · Rahul Chopra · SS Kang 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rahul Chopra · b SS Kang | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
| Finlay McCreathbowled · Junaid Siddique 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Siddique | 35 | 56 | 3 | 0 | 62.50 |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 31% during the match (Scotland: 69% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Christopher McBridecaught · Rahul Chopra · Sanchit Sharma 1 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Rahul Chopra · b Sanchit Sharma |
| 9 |
| 19 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 47.37 |
| Michael Leaskbowled · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Junaid Siddique | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mark Wattnot out0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 14* | 22 | 0 | 1 | 63.64 |
|---|
| Jack Jarvisnot out 3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 16* | 13 | 3 | 0 | 123.08 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Parashar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.2 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 7.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Sanchit Sharma1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 4.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Junaid Siddique1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 56 | 2 | 5.60 | 3 | 0 |
| Muhammad Jawadullah0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 4.40 | 3 | 0 |
| SS Kang1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 2.60 | 1 | 0 |
1-3 (Matty Cross, 1.3) · 2-104 (Brandon McMullen, 18.2) · 3-114 (Richie Berrington, 21.5) · 4-168 (George Munsey, 33.5) · 5-190 (Finlay McCreath, 38.1) · 6-190 (Michael Leask, 38.4) · 7-201 (Christopher McBride, 42.5)
Recorded target: 226 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 13/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 11 | 31/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 39/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 48/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 50/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 59/1 |
| 12 | 7 | 66/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 74/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 77/1 |
| 15 | 11 | 88/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 93/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 99/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 100/1 |
| 19 | 10 | 110/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 111/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 114/2 |
| 22 | 0 | 114/3 |
| 23 | 8 | 122/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 123/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 129/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 132/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 138/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 142/3 |
| 29 | 7 | 149/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 151/3 |
| 31 | 6 | 157/3 |
| 32 | 1 | 158/3 |
| 33 | 2 | 160/3 |
| 34 | 8 | 168/4 |
| 35 | 9 | 177/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 184/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 185/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 190/4 |
| 39 | 0 | 190/6 |
| 40 | 1 | 191/6 |
| 41 | 6 | 197/6 |
| 42 | 1 | 198/6 |
| 43 | 3 | 201/7 |
| 44 | 2 | 203/7 |
| 45 | 5 | 208/7 |
| 46 | 12 | 220/7 |
| 47 | 6 | 226/7 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
