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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025 · Men
4 May 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 19%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryansh Sharmacaught · Jasper John Davidson · Brandon McMullen 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jasper John Davidson · b Brandon McMullen | 30 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 81.08 |
| Sagar Kalyanbowled · Charlie Cassell 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Charlie Cassell | 11 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 47.83 |
| Vriitya Aravindbowled · Mark Watt 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mark Watt | 19 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 48.72 |
| Rahul Choprabowled · Mark Watt 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mark Watt | 11 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 84.62 |
 Alishan Sharafurun out · Matty Cross, Brandon McMullen · Mark Watt0 fours · 0 sixes |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 31% during the match (Scotland: 69% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 6 |
| 23 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 26.09 |
| Waseem Muhammadbowled · Jasper John Davidson 3 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Jasper John Davidson | 61 | 72 | 3 | 2 | 84.72 |
|---|
| D Parasharcaught · Finlay McCreath · Jack Jarvis 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Finlay McCreath · b Jack Jarvis | 33 | 61 | 3 | 0 | 54.10 |
|---|
| Sanchit Sharmacaught · Brandon McMullen · Jasper John Davidson 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Brandon McMullen · b Jasper John Davidson | 39 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 125.81 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquerun out · Matty Cross, Charlie Cassell · Jack Jarvis 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Matty Cross, Charlie Cassell | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Muhammad Jawadullahnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 11 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon McMullen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 4.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Jasper John Davidson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Cassell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 3.70 | 1 | 0 |
 Mark Watt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 3.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Jarvis1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 54 | 1 | 5.40 | 0 | 1 |
1-41 (Sagar Kalyan, 9.2) · 2-43 (Aryansh Sharma, 10.3) · 3-57 (Rahul Chopra, 14.2) · 4-78 (Alishan Sharafu, 21.3) · 5-89 (Vriitya Aravind, 23.4) · 6-167 (D Parashar, 42.2) · 7-202 (Waseem Muhammad, 47.3) · 8-219 (Junaid Siddique, 49.0) · 9-225 (Sanchit Sharma, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 19/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 20/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 31/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 33/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 36/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 38/0 |
| 10 | 5 | 43/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 44/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 45/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 50/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 55/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 59/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 60/3 |
| 17 | 3 | 63/3 |
| 18 | 7 | 70/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 72/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 74/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 77/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 80/4 |
| 23 | 4 | 84/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 89/5 |
| 25 | 2 | 91/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 94/5 |
| 27 | 3 | 97/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 99/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 100/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 103/5 |
| 31 | 12 | 115/5 |
| 32 | 5 | 120/5 |
| 33 | 7 | 127/5 |
| 34 | 4 | 131/5 |
| 35 | 1 | 132/5 |
| 36 | 5 | 137/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 141/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 146/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 152/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 158/5 |
| 41 | 4 | 162/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 166/5 |
| 43 | 1 | 167/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 172/6 |
| 45 | 8 | 180/6 |
| 46 | 4 | 184/6 |
| 47 | 16 | 200/6 |
| 48 | 4 | 204/7 |
| 49 | 15 | 219/8 |
| 50 | 6 | 225/9 |
Mark Watt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
