AucklandversusOtago

14 Jan 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Auckland won by 9 runs

Auckland20.0 overs146/6 Otago20.0 overs137/8 Eden Park Outer Oval, Auckland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Auckland started on 45%; Auckland batted first.

Auckland’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Auckland's chances ranged from 31% to 97% during the match (Otago: 3% to 69%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.2: MM Penfold to FC Leydon-Davis, FC Leydon-Davis out. Auckland up from 53% to 67%.
2nd inns 18.4: AT Hucker to LCN Smith, LCN Smith out. Auckland up from 61% to 80%.
2nd inns 18.6: AT Hucker to CG Blakely, four by CG Blakely. Otago up from 17% to 31%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.