Brisbane HeatversusMelbourne Renegades

18 Jan 2025 · T20

Docklands Stadium, Melbourne · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 3 wickets

Brisbane Heat20.0 overs196/4 Melbourne Renegades18.0 overs199/7 Docklands Stadium, Melbourne ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Brisbane Heat started on 54%; Brisbane Heat batted first.

Brisbane Heat’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Brisbane Heat's chances ranged from 1% to 89% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 12% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.3: SH Johnson to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Brisbane Heat up from 31% to 45%.
2nd inns 13.1: MJ Swepson to J Fraser-McGurk, six by J Fraser-McGurk. Melbourne Renegades up from 54% to 65%.
2nd inns 14.2: MG Neser to J Fraser-McGurk, 2 runs to J Fraser-McGurk. Melbourne Renegades up from 77% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Melbourne Renegades chose to field
Player of the match: Jake Fraser-McGurk
match referees: RL Parry
reserve umpires: C Grant
tv umpires: SAJ Craig
umpires: BC Treloar, DM Koch

Match history & source

On 18 Jan 2025, Brisbane Heat played Melbourne Renegades at Docklands Stadium, Melbourne. Recorded result: Melbourne Renegades won by 3 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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