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Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
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Zimbabwe Women tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Women
27 Feb 2026 · T20
Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 76%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 76% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 24%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyasha Gwanzuracaught · Polly Inglis · Jess Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Polly Inglis · b Jess Kerr | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kelis Ndhlovulbw · Rosemary Mair 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Rosemary Mair | 19 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 65.52 |
| Chipo Mugeribowled · Bree Illing 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Bree Illing | 7 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
| B Bizacaught · Jess Kerr · Amelia Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jess Kerr · b Amelia Kerr | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
| Chiedza Dhururucaught · Jess Kerr · Nensi Patel 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jess Kerr · b Nensi Patel | 20 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 153.85 |
| caught and bowled · b Kayley Knight |
| 4 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 44.44 |
| Christabel Chatonzwarun out · Polly Inglis, Rosemary Mair · Rosemary Mair 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Polly Inglis, Rosemary Mair | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Loren Tshumabowled · Nensi Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nensi Patel | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| A Zimunubowled · Kayley Knight 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kayley Knight | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| T Makushabowled · Jess Kerr 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jess Kerr | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Nomvelo Sibandanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 4.86 | 1 | 0 |
| Bree Illing0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 3.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Nensi Patel1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Kayley Knight0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 3 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Rosemary Mair1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Nyasha Gwanzura, 0.3) · 2-14 (Chipo Mugeri, 3.2) · 3-35 (B Biza, 7.2) · 4-45 (Kelis Ndhlovu, 9.0) · 5-61 (Chiedza Dhururu, 11.2) · 6-67 (Loryn Phiri, 12.5) · 7-69 (Loren Tshuma, 13.3) · 8-75 (Christabel Chatonzwa, 14.5) · 9-76 (A Zimunu, 15.1) · 10-86 (T Makusha, 18.3)
Recorded target: 197 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 15/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 20/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 30/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 35/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 43/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 45/4 |
| 10 | 4 | 49/4 |
| 11 | 12 | 61/4 |
| 12 | 2 | 63/5 |
| 13 | 6 | 69/6 |
| 14 | 0 | 69/7 |
| 15 | 7 | 76/8 |
| 16 | 3 | 79/9 |
| 17 | 3 | 82/9 |
| 18 | 0 | 82/9 |
| 19 | 4 | 86/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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