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Photo: Mattbuck
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2025 · Men
11 Jun 2025 · T20
Trent Bridge · Venue photographRecorded result
Yorkshire started on 45%; Yorkshire batted first.
Yorkshire's chances ranged from 29% to 98% during the match (Nottinghamshire: 2% to 71%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Adam Lythcaught · Joe Clarke · Dillon Pennington2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Joe Clarke · b Dillon Pennington | 29 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 138.10 |
 Dawid Malancaught and bowled · Conor McKerr7 fours · 3 sixes | caught and bowled · b Conor McKerr | 58 | 28 | 7 | 3 | 207.14 |
 William Luxtoncaught · Calvin Harrison · Liam Patterson-White1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Calvin Harrison · b Liam Patterson-White | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| James Whartoncaught · Daniel Sams · Calvin Harrison 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Daniel Sams |
| 11 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 110.00 |
| Harry Dukecaught · Tom Moores · Liam Patterson-White 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Moores · b Liam Patterson-White | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Will Sutherlandcaught and bowled · Daniel Sams1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Daniel Sams | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 115.38 |
|---|
 Matt Revisnot out2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 27* | 22 | 2 | 1 | 122.73 |
|---|
 Dominic Besscaught · Calvin Harrison · Dillon Pennington2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Calvin Harrison · b Dillon Pennington | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 180.00 |
|---|
| JA Chohancaught · Lyndon James · Daniel Sams 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lyndon James · b Daniel Sams | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Montgomery0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel Sams0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Dillon Pennington0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Conor McKerr0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 16.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Calvin Harrison0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Liam Patterson-White0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-83 (Adam Lyth, 7.3) · 2-99 (Dawid Malan, 8.5) · 3-117 (James Wharton, 11.3) · 4-120 (Harry Duke, 12.2) · 5-121 (William Luxton, 12.5) · 6-156 (Will Sutherland, 17.0) · 7-170 (Dominic Bess, 18.5) · 8-173 (JA Chohan, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 15 | 23/0 |
| 3 | 13 | 36/0 |
| 4 | 22 | 58/0 |
| 5 | 11 | 69/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 75/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 79/0 |
| 8 | 10 | 89/1 |
| 9 | 10 | 99/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 105/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 114/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 119/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 121/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 128/5 |
| 15 | 8 | 136/5 |
| 16 | 13 | 149/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 156/6 |
| 18 | 5 | 161/6 |
| 19 | 10 | 171/7 |
| 20 | 4 | 175/8 |
William Luxton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Sutherland: @evermorestation on Twitter · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Moores: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dawid Malan: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Matt Revis: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Daniel Sams: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adam Lyth: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Dominic Bess: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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