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The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
26 Dec 2025 · Test
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 4
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleylbw · Scott Boland3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Scott Boland | 37 | 48 | 3 | 1 | 77.08 |
 Ben Duckettbowled · Mitchell Starc4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Starc | 34 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 130.77 |
 Brydon Carsecaught · Cameron Green · Jhye Richardson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Jhye Richardson | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Jacob Bethell |
| caught · Usman Khawaja · b Scott Boland |
| 40 |
| 46 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 86.96 |
 Joe Rootlbw · Jhye Richardson0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jhye Richardson | 15 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 39.47 |
|---|
 Harry Brooknot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 18* | 22 | 3 | 0 | 81.82 |
|---|
 Ben Stokescaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 10 · wides: 0 · noballs: 5 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 1 |
 Michael Neser1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 54 | 0 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Jhye Richardson1 maidens · 0 wides · 4 no-balls | 5.2 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 4.13 | 0 | 4 |
 Scott Boland0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 29 | 2 | 3.22 | 0 | 0 |
1-51 (Ben Duckett, 7.0) · 2-65 (Brydon Carse, 9.5) · 3-112 (Zak Crawley, 18.4) · 4-137 (Jacob Bethell, 24.3) · 5-158 (Joe Root, 28.4) · 6-165 (Ben Stokes, 31.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 11 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 34/0 |
| 6 | 11 | 45/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 51/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 56/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 61/1 |
| 10 | 9 | 70/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 76/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 77/2 |
| 13 | 8 | 85/2 |
| 14 | 10 | 95/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 97/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 104/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 108/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 111/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 112/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 119/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 122/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 127/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 133/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 136/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 137/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 141/4 |
| 27 | 5 | 146/4 |
| 28 | 8 | 154/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 158/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 161/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 165/5 |
| 32 | 9 | 174/6 |
| 33 | 4 | 178/6 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Michael Neser: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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