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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Americas Region Final · 2025 · Men
16 Jun 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Canada more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 87%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 48% to 100% during the match (Cayman Islands: 0% to 52%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Bakercaught · Dillon Heyliger · Harsh Thaker 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Dillon Heyliger · b Harsh Thaker | 30 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 130.43 |
| AR Naidoocaught · Kaleem Sana · Shivam Sharma (3) 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kaleem Sana · b Shivam Sharma (3) | 24 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Ramon Sealycaught · Kaleem Sana · Jaskaran Singh1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kaleem Sana · b Jaskaran Singh | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
| S Fostercaught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · b Kaleem Sana | 13 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 59.09 |
| ROC Dunkalbw · Shivam Sharma (3) 0 fours · 0 sixes |
| lbw · b Shivam Sharma (3) |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| BKB Corbincaught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · Shivam Sharma (3) 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · b Shivam Sharma (3) | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Conroy Wrightbowled · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Saad Bin Zafar | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Kervin Ebankscaught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · Harsh Thaker 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kanwarpal Tathgur · b Harsh Thaker | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Alessandro Morrisnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 19 | 2 | 0 | 42.11 |
|---|
| A Wrightrun out · Kanwarpal Tathgur, Jaskaran Singh · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kanwarpal Tathgur, Jaskaran Singh | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| T Taylornot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleem Sana2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 9.50 | 2 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaskaran Singh0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 7.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Shivam Sharma (3)0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-44 (J Baker, 5.2) · 2-70 (Ramon Sealy, 9.0) · 3-72 (AR Naidoo, 9.4) · 4-78 (ROC Dunka, 11.1) · 5-79 (BKB Corbin, 11.3) · 6-80 (Conroy Wright, 12.2) · 7-89 (Kervin Ebanks, 15.1) · 8-97 (S Foster, 18.1) · 9-97 (A Wright, 18.4)
Recorded target: 163 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 17 | 23/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 31/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 36/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 43/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 50/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 58/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 62/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 70/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 74/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 78/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 80/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 82/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 85/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 89/6 |
| 16 | 1 | 90/7 |
| 17 | 0 | 90/7 |
| 18 | 7 | 97/7 |
| 19 | 0 | 97/9 |
| 20 | 6 | 103/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
