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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Americas Region Final · 2025 · Men
16 Jun 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Canada more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Canada started on 87%; Canada batted first.
Canada's chances ranged from 48% to 100% during the match (Cayman Islands: 0% to 52%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YS Samralbw · A Wright 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b A Wright | 28 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 164.71 |
| Aaron Johnsoncaught · Ramon Sealy · Conroy Wright 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ramon Sealy · b Conroy Wright | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Pargat Singhlbw · ROC Dunka 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b ROC Dunka | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Nicholas Kirtoncaught · R Walker · ROC Dunka 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · R Walker · b ROC Dunka | 42 | 38 | 2 | 1 | 110.53 |
| Harsh Thakerlbw · Alessandro Morris 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Alessandro Morris | 13 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 54.17 |
| Kanwarpal Tathgur |
| not out |
| 53* |
| 32 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 165.63 |
| Jaskaran Singhnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 12* | 4 | 1 | 1 | 300.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conroy Wright0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.5 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 11.22 | 4 | 1 |
| ROC Dunka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 7.50 | 1 | 0 |
| T Taylor0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.1 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 9.69 | 1 | 0 |
| A Wright0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Alessandro Morris0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Kervin Ebanks0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 10.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-2 (Aaron Johnson, 0.5) · 2-3 (Pargat Singh, 1.1) · 3-50 (YS Samra, 7.2) · 4-62 (Harsh Thaker, 10.3) · 5-137 (Nicholas Kirton, 18.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 4/2 |
| 3 | 10 | 14/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 20/2 |
| 5 | 15 | 35/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 43/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 49/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 53/3 |
| 9 | 2 | 55/3 |
| 10 | 5 | 60/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 64/4 |
| 12 | 6 | 70/4 |
| 13 | 10 | 80/4 |
| 14 | 11 | 91/4 |
| 15 | 6 | 97/4 |
| 16 | 14 | 111/4 |
| 17 | 11 | 122/4 |
| 18 | 6 | 128/4 |
| 19 | 10 | 138/5 |
| 20 | 24 | 162/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
