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West Africa Trophy · 2025/26 · Men
12 Dec 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Nigeria more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nigeria started on 86%; Nigeria batted first.
Nigeria's chances ranged from 84% to 100% during the match (Zambia: 0% to 16%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Asim (2)caught · Sylvester Okpe · O Isiyaku 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sylvester Okpe · b O Isiyaku | 16 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 133.33 |
| Mohmedazim Abbasbhairun out · Sulaimon Runsewe, Daniel Ajekun · E Ndubudem 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sulaimon Runsewe, Daniel Ajekun | 10 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
| Jakir Patelbowled · O Isiyaku 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b O Isiyaku | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Mohammad Bhaiducaught · O Isiyaku · E Ndubudem 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · O Isiyaku · b E Ndubudem | 11 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 55.00 |
| JV Chandbowled · Abdullahi Ismail 3 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Abdullahi Ismail | 47 | 31 | 3 | 2 | 151.61 |
| run out · Sulaimon Runsewe, Daniel Ajekun |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Ayaz Dadabhaicaught · Isaac Danladi · Sylvester Okpe 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Isaac Danladi · b Sylvester Okpe | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Salman Patelnot out 2 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 24* | 18 | 2 | 1 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Soyeb Pendicaught · Isaac Okpe · Abdullahi Ismail 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Isaac Okpe · b Abdullahi Ismail | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| M Yambayambarun out · Sulaimon Runsewe, K Boniface · O Isiyaku 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sulaimon Runsewe, K Boniface | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Aslam Berarun out · Sulaimon Runsewe · O Isiyaku 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sulaimon Runsewe | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Abdullahi Ismail0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 7.50 | 2 | 0 |
| O Isiyaku0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.82 | 1 | 0 |
| E Ndubudem0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 4 | 0 |
| Sylvester Okpe0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 4.25 | 1 | 1 |
1-19 (Muhammad Asim (2), 2.5) · 2-24 (Jakir Patel, 4.1) · 3-37 (Mohmedazim Abbasbhai, 6.1) · 4-67 (Mohammad Bhaidu, 10.5) · 5-69 (Javid Patel, 11.3) · 6-81 (Ayaz Dadabhai, 13.2) · 7-118 (JV Chand, 16.5) · 8-118 (Soyeb Pendi, 17.0) · 9-124 (M Yambayamba, 18.1) · 10-126 (Aslam Bera, 18.4)
Recorded target: 153 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 27/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 37/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 39/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 44/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 53/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 59/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 67/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 71/5 |
| 13 | 9 | 80/5 |
| 14 | 2 | 82/6 |
| 15 | 13 | 95/6 |
| 16 | 13 | 108/6 |
| 17 | 10 | 118/8 |
| 18 | 5 | 123/8 |
| 19 | 3 | 126/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.