MalaysiaversusSaudi Arabia

2 May 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Malaysia won by 18 runs

Malaysia20.0 overs135/7 Saudi Arabia19.2 overs117/10 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Saudi Arabia more likely to win

42%Malaysia58%Saudi Arabia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Saudi Arabia rate stronger than Malaysia (1,594 vs 1,501 on our results rating)
Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Malaysia started on 40%; Malaysia batted first.

Malaysia’s chance of winning (%) · Saudi Arabia is the rest

Malaysia's chances ranged from 25% to 99% during the match (Saudi Arabia: 1% to 75%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.4: Virandeep Singh to Waji Ul Hassan, Waji Ul Hassan out. Malaysia up from 37% to 52%.
2nd inns 7.3: S Vijay Unni to Abdul Waheed, Abdul Waheed out. Malaysia up from 57% to 73%.
2nd inns 9.3: S Vijay Unni to Syed Faizan Tahir, Syed Faizan Tahir out. Malaysia up from 71% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Malaysia135/7 Saudi Arabia117/10

Innings 2

Saudi Arabia

117/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Saudi Arabia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Abdul Waheedlbw · Vijay Unni 4 fours · 3 sixes	lbw · b Vijay Unni	44	26	4	3	169.23
Faisal Khanbowled · Syed Aziz 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Syed Aziz	2	7	0	0	28.57
Usman Khalidlbw · Syed Aziz 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Syed Aziz	2	2	0	0	100.00
Waji Ul Hassanlbw · Virandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Virandeep Singh	0	5	0	0	0.00
Hisham Sheikhcaught · Ainool Hafizs · Pavandeep Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ainool Hafizs · b Pavandeep Singh	8	14	0	0	57.14
Syed Faizan Tahir

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Syed Aziz0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	32	2	8.00	1
Rizwan Haider0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.2	0	11	2	4.71	0
Muhammad Wafiq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	15	0	15.00	0
Virandeep Singh0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	1	4.50	1
Pavandeep Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	21	2	5.25	2
Vijay Unni1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	18	2	4.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	7	14/0
3	2	16/2
4	15	31/2
5	15	46/2
6	1	47/3
7	3	50/3
8	0	50/4
9	4	54/4
10	5	59/5
11	5	64/6
12	5	69/6
13	9	78/7
14	10	88/7
15	4	92/7
16	8	100/7
17	10	110/7
18	4	114/8
19	3	117/8
20	0	117/10

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