TurkeyversusBulgaria

12 Jul 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Turkey won by 59 runs

Turkey19.3 overs237/10 Bulgaria16.5 overs178/10 Vassil Levski National Sports Academy, Sofia ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bulgaria more likely to win

27%Turkey73%Bulgaria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bulgaria rate stronger than Turkey (1,363 vs 1,291 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Bulgaria won 2 and Turkey won 0
Bulgaria are playing at home in Bulgaria

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Turkey started on 22%; Turkey batted first.

Turkey’s chance of winning (%) · Bulgaria is the rest

Turkey's chances ranged from 22% to 100% during the match (Bulgaria: 0% to 78%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.4: Ilyas Ataullah to Manan Bashir, Manan Bashir out. Turkey up from 41% to 59%.
2nd inns 10.3: Murat Yilmaz to D Nikolov, D Nikolov out. Turkey up from 61% to 83%.
2nd inns 12.1: Murat Yilmaz to Zeerak Chughtai, Jakob Gul out. Turkey up from 71% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Turkey237/10 Bulgaria178/10

Innings 2

Bulgaria

178/1016.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bulgaria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
H Lakovcaught · A Turkmen · Ilyas Cetin 9 fours · 4 sixes	caught · A Turkmen · b Ilyas Cetin	78	29	9	4	268.97
Isa Zaroocaught · Zafer Durmaz · A Turkmen 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Zafer Durmaz · b A Turkmen	5	3	1	0	166.67
M Gogevrun out · Ilyas Ataullah, Muhammad Fahad · A Turkmen 0 fours · 1 sixes	run out · Ilyas Ataullah, Muhammad Fahad	9	4	0	1	225.00
Manan Bashircaught · Ilyas Cetin · Ilyas Ataullah 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Ilyas Cetin · b Ilyas Ataullah	32	13	2	3	246.15
D Nikolovcaught · A Turkmen · Murat Yilmaz 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · A Turkmen · b Murat Yilmaz	11	11	0	1	100.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
A Turkmen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	39	1	13.00	1
Serdar Burak Emir0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	48	0	16.00	1
Ilyas Cetin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	22	1	22.00	0
GG Alta0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	22	0	22.00	0
Murat Yilmaz0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	24	2	6.00	2
Ilyas Ataullah1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	1	17	4	4.43	0
Muhammad Fahad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	4	0	4.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	11	11/1
2	12	23/1
3	17	40/2
4	14	54/2
5	11	65/2
6	22	87/2
7	22	109/3
8	22	131/3
9	6	137/3
10	2	139/4
11	9	148/5
12	10	158/5
13	4	162/7
14	0	162/8
15	5	167/8
16	6	173/8
17	5	178/10

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