BangladeshversusPakistan

22 Jul 2025 · T20

Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 8 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs133/10 Pakistan19.2 overs125/10 Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%Bangladesh48%Pakistan

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 8 and Bangladesh won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Pakistan (1,577 vs 1,527 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 48%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 1% to 86%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.3: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to Hassan Nawaz, Hassan Nawaz out. Bangladesh up from 64% to 84%.
2nd inns 18.6: Rishad Hossain to Faheem Ashraf, Faheem Ashraf out. Bangladesh up from 77% to 93%.
2nd inns 19.2: Mustafizur Rahman to Ahmed Daniyal, Ahmed Daniyal out. Bangladesh up from 82% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh133/10 Pakistan125/10

Innings 2

Pakistan

125/1019.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Fakhar Zamancaught · Litton Das · Shariful Islam 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Shariful Islam	8	8	1	0	100.00
Saim Ayubrun out · Parvez Hossain Emon, Litton Das, Rishad Hossain · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Parvez Hossain Emon, Litton Das, Rishad Hossain	1	4	0	0	25.00
Mohammad Harislbw · Shariful Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Shariful Islam	0	1	0	0	0.00
Salman Ali Aghacaught · Tawhid Hridoy · Mahedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tawhid Hridoy · b Mahedi Hasan	9	23	0	0	39.13
Hassan Nawazcaught · Litton Das · Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	1	0
Shariful Islam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	3	4.25	1	0
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.2	15	1	4.50	0	0
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	0	1
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	42	1	10.50	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	6	10/2
3	3	13/2
4	1	14/3
5	1	15/5
6	2	17/5
7	3	20/5
8	6	26/5
9	3	29/5
10	3	32/6
11	3	35/6
12	12	47/7
13	4	51/7
14	11	62/7
15	20	82/7
16	6	88/7
17	9	97/8
18	9	106/8
19	15	121/9
20	4	125/10

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