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Pakistan tour of Bangladesh · 2025 · Men
22 Jul 2025 · T20
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 48%; Bangladesh batted first.
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 1% to 86%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammad Naimcaught · Mohammad Haris · Fahim Ashraf 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Haris · b Fahim Ashraf | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Fahim Ashraf · Ahmed Daniyal 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Fahim Ashraf · b Ahmed Daniyal | 13 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 92.86 |
 Litton Dascaught · Hassan Nawaz · Salman Mirza1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hassan Nawaz · b Salman Mirza | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 88.89 |
 Tawhid Hridoyrun out · Salman Ali Agha · Salman Mirza0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Salman Ali Agha | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| caught · Mohammad Nawaz · b Abbas Afridi |
| 55 |
| 48 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 114.58 |
| Mahedi Hasancaught · Hassan Nawaz · Mohammad Nawaz 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Hassan Nawaz · b Mohammad Nawaz | 33 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 132.00 |
|---|
 Shamim Hossainbowled · Ahmed Daniyal0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ahmed Daniyal | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Tanzim Hasan Sakibcaught · Fakhar Zaman · Salman Mirza1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Salman Mirza | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 175.00 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossainbowled · Abbas Afridi0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Abbas Afridi | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Shariful Islamrun out · Salman Ali Agha, Abbas Afridi · Abbas Afridi0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Salman Ali Agha, Abbas Afridi | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmannot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salman Mirza1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Fahim Ashraf0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Ahmed Daniyal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Khushdil Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Abbas Afridi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Mohammad Naim, 1.3) · 2-25 (Litton Das, 4.1) · 3-25 (Tawhid Hridoy, 4.4) · 4-28 (Parvez Hossain Emon, 5.5) · 5-81 (Mahedi Hasan, 14.0) · 6-93 (Shamim Hossain, 15.3) · 7-100 (Tanzim Hasan Sakib, 16.3) · 8-111 (Rishad Hossain, 18.0) · 9-127 (Shariful Islam, 19.3) · 10-133 (Jaker Ali, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 11 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 25/3 |
| 6 | 4 | 29/4 |
| 7 | 6 | 35/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 38/4 |
| 9 | 3 | 41/4 |
| 10 | 12 | 53/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 59/4 |
| 12 | 4 | 63/4 |
| 13 | 9 | 72/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 81/5 |
| 15 | 5 | 86/5 |
| 16 | 8 | 94/6 |
| 17 | 8 | 102/7 |
| 18 | 9 | 111/8 |
| 19 | 9 | 120/8 |
| 20 | 13 | 133/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Shamim Hossain: DelwarHossain · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shariful Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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