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Photo: Timothy Barton (timtranslates.com)
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of West Indies · 2024/25 · Men
14 Nov 2024 · T20
Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 37%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 41% during the match (England: 59% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltbowled · Akeal Hosein0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Akeal Hosein | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Will Jackscaught · Rovman Powell · Gudakesh Motie3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rovman Powell · b Gudakesh Motie | 32 | 33 | 3 | 0 | 96.97 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Rovman Powell · Akeal Hosein0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rovman Powell · b Akeal Hosein | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Nicolas Pooran · Alzarri Joseph 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Alzarri Joseph | 4 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 200.00 |
 Sam Currancaught · Shai Hope · Terrance Hinds3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Terrance Hinds | 41 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 157.69 |
|---|
| Liam Livingstonecaught · Romario Shepherd · Akeal Hosein 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Romario Shepherd · b Akeal Hosein | 39 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 139.29 |
|---|
| Dan Mousleycaught · Shimron Hetmyer · Akeal Hosein 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shimron Hetmyer · b Akeal Hosein | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtonnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Rehan Ahmednot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance Hinds0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 12.86 | 4 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-14 (Philip Salt, 2.4) · 2-32 (Jos Buttler, 5.0) · 3-37 (Jacob Bethell, 5.3) · 4-75 (Will Jacks, 11.0) · 5-114 (Sam Curran, 15.2) · 6-123 (Dan Mousley, 16.4) · 7-142 (Liam Livingstone, 18.2)
Recorded target: 146 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 22/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 32/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 42/3 |
| 7 | 11 | 53/3 |
| 8 | 5 | 58/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 64/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 70/3 |
| 11 | 5 | 75/4 |
| 12 | 8 | 83/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 89/4 |
| 14 | 9 | 98/4 |
| 15 | 10 | 108/4 |
| 16 | 14 | 122/5 |
| 17 | 3 | 125/6 |
| 18 | 16 | 141/6 |
| 19 | 3 | 144/7 |
| 20 | 5 | 149/7 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rehan Ahmed: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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