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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C · 2026/27 · Men
20 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Nigeria more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Nigeria started on 77%; Nigeria batted first.
Nigeria's chances ranged from 78% to 100% during the match (Gambia: 0% to 22%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammed Mangabowled · Mohameed Taiwo 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohameed Taiwo | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aniru Contehcaught · Ali Rahmon · Peter Aho 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ali Rahmon · b Peter Aho | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Frank Campbellbowled · R Abdulkareem 1 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b R Abdulkareem | 25 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 125.00 |
| Abubacarr Kuyatehlbw · Isaac Okpe 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Isaac Okpe | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Andre Jarjucaught · Mohameed Taiwo · R Abdulkareem 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Mohameed Taiwo · b R Abdulkareem | 39 | 38 | 4 | 2 | 102.63 |
| bowled · b Sylvester Okpe |
| 0 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Pa Assan Fayestumped · Ali Rahmon · Sylvester Okpe 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Ali Rahmon · b Sylvester Okpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| David Dembacaught · Peter Aho · Sylvester Okpe 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Peter Aho · b Sylvester Okpe | 19 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 237.50 |
|---|
| Modou Bojangbowled · Chima Akachukwu 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chima Akachukwu | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Musa Jobartehbowled · R Abdulkareem 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b R Abdulkareem | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Fallou Thorpenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohameed Taiwo1 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 4.00 | 2 | 1 |
| Peter Aho0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Vincent Adewoye0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Chima Akachukwu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2.40 | 1 | 0 |
| K Boniface0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 21.00 | 0 | 0 |
| R Abdulkareem1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sylvester Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 3 | 8.67 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Muhammed Manga, 0.3) · 2-2 (Aniru Conteh, 1.2) · 3-21 (Abubacarr Kuyateh, 3.1) · 4-61 (Frank Campbell, 8.1) · 5-69 (Mustapha Suwareh, 11.5) · 6-69 (Pa Assan Faye, 12.0) · 7-83 (Andre Jarju, 15.0) · 8-99 (David Demba, 15.5) · 9-102 (Musa Jobarteh, 16.5) · 10-102 (Modou Bojang, 17.2)
Recorded target: 263 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 10 | 11/2 |
| 3 | 10 | 21/2 |
| 4 | 1 | 22/3 |
| 5 | 9 | 31/3 |
| 6 | 2 | 33/3 |
| 7 | 21 | 54/3 |
| 8 | 7 | 61/3 |
| 9 | 0 | 61/4 |
| 10 | 2 | 63/4 |
| 11 | 5 | 68/4 |
| 12 | 1 | 69/6 |
| 13 | 4 | 73/6 |
| 14 | 8 | 81/6 |
| 15 | 2 | 83/7 |
| 16 | 17 | 100/8 |
| 17 | 2 | 102/9 |
| 18 | 0 | 102/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.