ScotlandversusSri Lanka

26 Jun 2026 · T20

Old Trafford · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 3 wickets

Scotland20.0 overs151/6 Sri Lanka19.5 overs154/7 Old Trafford ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

44%Scotland56%Sri Lanka

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 3 and Scotland won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Scotland rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,650 vs 1,615 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 39%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 16% to 62% during the match (Sri Lanka: 38% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 12.3: KE Bryce to H Madavi, H Madavi out. Scotland up from 21% to 39%.
2nd inns 14.6: KL Gordon to WK Dilhari, WK Dilhari out. Scotland up from 22% to 41%.
2nd inns 19.5: PA Chatterji to BMSM Kumari, four by BMSM Kumari. Sri Lanka up from 80% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland151/6 Sri Lanka154/7

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

154/719.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Chamari Atapattubowled · Katherine Fraser 6 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Katherine Fraser	33	16	6	1	206.25
Imesha Dulanicaught · G Fontenla · Rachel Slater 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · G Fontenla · b Rachel Slater	4	6	1	0	66.67
Hasini Pereracaught · Kirstie Gordon · Kathryn Bryce 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kirstie Gordon · b Kathryn Bryce	23	17	3	0	135.29
Harshitha Madavicaught · Priyanaz Chatterji · Kathryn Bryce 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Priyanaz Chatterji · b Kathryn Bryce

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kathryn Bryce0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	2	7.00	7
G Fontenla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	18	0	18.00	0
Rachel Slater0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	31	2	8.86	1
Katherine Fraser0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	0
Kirstie Gordon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Darcey Carter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	0	7.00	0
Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.2	14	0	10.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	18	28/0
3	5	33/1
4	10	43/1
5	12	55/1
6	10	65/2
7	4	69/2
8	7	76/2
9	2	78/3
10	3	81/4
11	10	91/4
12	9	100/4
13	6	106/5
14	7	113/5
15	5	118/6
16	2	120/6
17	5	125/6
18	10	135/7
19	10	145/7
20	9	154/7

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